BULL MARKET OVER FOR DAX,FTSE,CHINA HSI, DOW TRANSPORTS AND BOND MARKET
I believe that the Bull Markets of the above-mentioned indexes HAVE ENDED. IN MY OPINION THE INTERMEDIATE TREND OF THESE INDEXES IS NOW DOWN. However, the Dow industrials, the NASDAQ and the Standard & Poor’s 500 continue in a narrow trading range in what technical chart readers may call Distribution. One of the main topics of contention is, when will the Federal Reserve increase interest rates and will Greece meet its financial obligations? According to Diane Swank of Mesrow Financial, she believes short-term rates are headed up and in September. This is much earlier than the market investors are contemplating. As far as the Greece situation is concerned, we have been consistently negative and believe that all alternatives are just kicking the can down the road to Greece’s inevitable default. How long will the major indexes hold up in their current Bull Market? There’s an old saying, “it is’nt an over, until it’s over.”
Maybe, you haven’t heard the news yet, but the bond market is crashing. Yields on the 10 year bond are up .55 basis points. That corresponds to approximately a 30% increase in yields for the 10 year bond. Maybe the Federal Reserve isn’t ready to increase interest rates, but investors sure are.
The fabric of the economy continues to be ripped apart by events that hurt the Middle Class and the poor. Pew Research have 30 States cutting budgets in health care, senior care, city government and universities, At the same time wages are dropping and upward mobility is suffering. Add to this, is a recent decision by the Supreme Court to not protect individuals who have second mortgages in bankruptcy. Meanwhile Jamie Dimon becomes a billionaire. Watch out below!
KEEP AN EYE ON THE CHART BELOW FOR BREAK OUT POINTS BELOW RESISTANCE OR ABOVE SUPPORT AREAS. Particularly watch for a breakout below Dow 17,147/17,000, NASDAQ 4605/4545, S&P 500 1991/1973. That would change the Intermediate trend to DOWN
|Breakout Points||DJIA||NASDAQ||S&P 500|
|Short Term Up (Resistance)||18,312||5,107||2,131|
|Short Term Down (Support)||17,147/17,0000||4605/4,5455||1,991/1,9733|
|Int. Term Up (Resistance)||18,974 See Fibonacci Projections above||5,250||2,486 See Fibonacci Projections above|
|Int. Term Down (Support)||15,855 /15,356 /14,688||4,166 3,986/3294||1,820 /1,560|
|Long Term Up (Resistance)||18,974||5,250||3,044|
|Long Term Down Fibonacci Support||50%12,000 62% 10,750||50%2,958 62% 2,555||50%1,390 62% 1,177|
|10 yr Treasury 2.35||Gold 1,181||Oil 60.10|