WHO ME WORRY?

SELL SELL SELL

KEEP AN EYE ON THE CHART BELOW FOR BREAK OUT POINTS BELOW RESISTANCE OR ABOVE SUPPORT AREAS. Particularly  watch for a breakout below Dow 17,147/17,000, NASDAQ 4605/4545, S&P 500   1991/1973. That would change the Intermediate trend to DOWN

Today’s New York Time said about the riots in Baltimore “Our real crisis is the denial of opportunity based on skin color and zip code”

After making all time new highs, the stock markets have shown some weaknesses. Today the Nikki is down 2.7%. DOW DOWN 195, NASDAQ DOWN 1.6% S&P DOWN 1%.Yesterday the DAX was down some 3.21% , the Nikkei down 1.5% and the 10 year yield on treasuries up 3.1%,  The economy in the first quarter was only up .02%, where is it was forecast be up at least 1%. So there are some surprises.I have been asked to comment on what kind of surprises I worried about? So, here goes!

WATCH THE LEADER APPLE

APPLE.S STOCK IS NOW IN A DOWNTREND

CLASS WARFARE:  There is an old saying that because of events in Baltimore and Ferguson Missouri needs repeating. “RIOT IS THE LANGUAGE OF THE UNHEARD”. Although the media has referred to the two above-mentioned events as racial strife, I am of the opinion that it has everything to do with the wide gaps in our economic social structure. The capitalistic system has many advantages. However by definition, capitalism, because of its competitive nature, there are winners and losers. As it now stands, the winners, some 10,000 billionaires control most of the wealth in the world and therefore the political power. All economic growth has gone to the top, leaving the bottom (47% as Romney identified them as nonpaying taxpayers) called do nothings and worthless. In the poor areas of cities and many rural areas, the kind of manufacturing jobs that brought dignity to the working poor, are not available. In addition, there is lack of education and training in these areas. This situation has pretty much been ignored, as the crime in these areas has been confined to these areas, and perpetrated on the poor by the poor. Yes, we should all be motivated to achieve our own individualized success. However if a Las Vegas gambler had to put his money down on the success possibility of someone being born in a blighted poor area of the city, with maybe only one parent, under nourished, poorly educated, surrounded by violence and without any role models, the odds would be well over 1 million to one. Therefore, it is surprising that the kind of riots that are now taking place in Baltimore and other cities have taken so long to occur. Most people will condemn the action of those who are rioting. Yes, those people should be held responsible for their actions of looting. However, the condemnation of their actions should also be viewed on a larger scale. When 4 Kent State students were gunned down by National Guard troops in 1970 antiwar protests, only 11% of Americans polled thought the National Guard overreacted. In the long run, the Vietnam War as it turned out the protesters were right. The Vietnam War’s outcome was not worth the precious lives of troops, as the entrepreneurial Vietnamese now welcome tourists to sun themselves on China Beach. The protesters helped end the war. The current protesters are trying to end inequality. However, those black men shot down for questionable circumstances, are still dead and there is a resentment and a deep-seated anger lying just below the surface of our beautiful high-rise cities. As long as this inequality of opportunity continues in these blighted areas, there is no telling when and to what extent these kinds of eruptions will occur.  How long can this kind of inequality continue? We have asked this question before ,some 50 years ago.

How many roads must a man walk down
Before you call him a man?
How many seas must a white dove sail
Before she sleeps in the sand?

How many times must the cannonballs fly
Before they’re forever banned?
The answer, my friend, is blowing in the wind
The answer is blowing in the wind

How many years must a mountain exist
Before it is washed to the sea?
How many years can some people exist
Before they’re allowed to be free?

How many times can a man turn his head
And pretend that he just doesn’t see?
The answer, my friend, is blowing in the wind
The answer is blowing in the wind

How many times must a man look up
Before he can see the sky?
How many ears must one man have
Before he can hear people cry?

How many deaths will it take till he knows
That too many people have died?
The answer, my friend, is blowing in the wind
The answer is blowing in the wind

SUNG BY Peter, Paul & Mary – Lyrics BOB Dylan| MetroLyrics

Banks:  I’m worried about the banks. If the economy slows bank will have some of the same problems they had in 2008. Whereas most banks let’s say 75% of them are theoretically in good shape, the 10 or 12 largest banks in the world I believe are under capitalized and have taken on enormous risks by issuing derivatives. In today’s stock market in Europe bank stocks are down 1 ½%. There is concern about in a strong dollar, low oil prices, and US Fed policy. Then of course there is Greece, and its potential for bringing chaos to the European economic system. In the other problem in Europe is its ability to handle Muslim immigrant, who are coming into their borders by the millions. This is a long-term problem, but is just one more problem that Europe seems not be able to solve.

Cyberspace attack: Today’s New York Times has an article entitled Preparing for Warfare in Cyberspace. Just as we were unprepared for 9/11 the Pentagon doesn’t want to be left flat-footed again and has issued a new 33 page cyber security strategy to prepare the United States to retaliate, if necessary, against cyber attacks and is developing weapons to do so. The strategy document provides some transparency about the problem for which the military is expected to increase 6200 workers in a few years to help prepare us. As cyber threats have been increasing in severity and sophistication this report seems to be closing the barn door after the horses of already escaped. In my opinion, this effort is too little and too late and should be viewed as a global issue, not just a US problem.

Spoofing, And then of course we have our unintentional homegrown terrorists that manipulate markets, which can contribute to such disasters as the flash crash of May 6, 2010. Navinder Sarao, a British trader, working out of his parent’s home outside London, disrupted markets worldwide, by using spoofing techniques, or placing orders that he intended to cancel before they were filled. This is high-speed strategies  that exploits the fragmented nature of our trading system to make profits purely on time and speed. If this kind of damage can be done by someone who unintentionally damaged our marketplace,think of what kind of harm could be done intentionally with a cyberspace attack.

TERRORIST SURPRISES Recent events in Paris, added new uncertainty to the marketplace. We have all heard of the Black Swan. THE BLACK ELEPHANT is similar to the Black Swan, as it is something we had not expected. The differences is that THE BLACK ELEPHANT, was there the whole time right in front of us for all of us to see, but we choose not to see it.( More properly it should have been called  ‘the gorilla in the room’ but the New York Times coined  BLACK ELEPHANT). The markets so far have chosen to ignore some really negative factors that I see so plainly and so far the market just goes higher!

The radical Muslim world, has found a new way to terrorize the ‘infidels’ in the West. Rather than staging huge terrorist acts, such as 9/11, this new activity of random terrorize acts in various places throughout the globe could unstablize  our Western economies. Events such as the savagery of ISIS, beheadings, the Boston marathon attack, the female genital mutilation’s, the abduction of girls in Nigeria, the execution of the  innocence in Iran, the slaughtering and enslaving of Christians in Egypt and Africa, and various other crimes against humanity committed by those who claim to represent Islam, have so far seemed at a distance from most of us. However, the recent events in Paris could happen anywhere: in our local grocery stores or theaters or sporting events. If these kind of events persist or increase, economic disruptions may occur. Then there is the ‘gorilla in the room’ and the ultimate BLACK ELEPHANT that everyone one is thinking about, but not talking about and that is the use of a ‘dirty nuclear devise” in a major city. Sorry, but in my opinion, I have to mention that the possibility of this occurring is high!

Dirty Bomb or Worse!  It is no secret, that building a bomb such as we exploded over Hiroshima  is a matter primarily of obtaining the right kind of plutonium. Once obtained, a critical mass and explosion can result by just dropping half the required product on the other half.  Radical religious fanatics and the nuclear age are not a good combination. So, is very important that weapons grade uranium stay out of the hands of terrorists. All of our, the US, weapons grade uranium, is fabricated and stored in Oak Ridge Tennessee in a facility called Y – 12. As you would imagine, this facility is guarded with extreme care for by some 500 security officers authorized to use lethal force within its protected area. Y – 12 is called the Fort Knox of uranium storage. However, as reported in a March 9, 2015 New Yorker  Magazine article, three people,  belonging to the Plowshares organization ( inspired by the legendary pacifist  Dorothy  Day) were able to elude all these defenses and on July 28, 2012 spray-painted the storage facility. What makes this breach of security even more unbelievable is that all three people were elderly and one, was an 82-year-old nun named Macon Rice. If this is how insecure our plutonium is, one can only imagine what it is like in places like Pakistan and Russia.

In the Economist Magazine dated March 7, 2015 their cover picture had to intercontinental missiles in flight. Entitled the new nuclear age. They indicated that every nuclear power is spending lavishly to upgrade its atomic arsenals; Russia’s defense budget has grown by over 50% of which a third is devoted to nuclear weapons. France and China are adding to its stocks and investing heavily in submarine and mobile missile batteries. Pakistan is amassing dozens of battlefield nukes to make up for its inferiority to India. The United States has asked for $350 billion to undertake a decade-long program of modernization of America’s arsenal. The new arsenal includes low level tactical nuclear delivery systems. Why is this happening?  Some countries want nuclear weapons to prop up a tottering state. Others want nuclear weapons not to freeze the status quo but to change it. China’s nuclear expansion is designed to give them a chance to retaliate using a second strike, should American attempt to destroy its arsenal. Taiwan could escalate alarmingly. According to the Economist Magazine, using nuclear weapons in a limited way is being reconsidered as an alternative to conventional military weapons.

‘CLIMATE CHANGE’, OR AS I LIKE TO CALL IT ‘GLOBAL WARMING’!

Whereas there is a wide scale difference of opinion of what causes climate change, there seems to be no question that is happening. Even Pope Francis has announced that he is going to issue an encyclical about our responsibilities to deal with this problem on a worldwide basis. From the church that burned Bruno at the stake and threatened to excommunicate Galileo, historically this is quite a nod to the advantage of scientific method, discovery and problem solving. According to many scientists, the effects of global warming, because of increased carbon dioxide in our atmosphere, is now inevitable. Most people believe that global warming will not affect our generation. However California, our agricultural Eden, is quickly turning into a desert. Without the irrigation from a diminished Colorado River our food sources would be cut in half. Expect surprises.

THE BLACK SWAN

As our once Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld said,” it’s not what you don’t know, it’s what you don’t, know that you don’t know.” All the other problems above are problems that we recognize. However sometimes, there are problems that are not on our radar screen and unexpected that can occur. What comes to mind first, is a meteorite or excessive volcanic disruptions? When one is younger, one tends to dam the torpedoes. However, as one ages, one realizes that the veil that covers civilization is very thin and can be disrupted easily. I have been an optimist my whole life. But I have not in my lifetime experienced such hubris and overconfidence. In a current book by David Brooks entitled Road to Character, he is concerned about the percentage of high school students within A average or better that  have increased by more than 80% in two generations. In a Gallup poll from 1950 high school students were asked if they considered themselves very important. In 1950 the average was 12% while by 2005 the figure was 80% and a more recent survey of middle schoolgirls nearly twice as many said they wanted to be a personal assistant to a celebrity, than to be the president of Harvard, and the person they most wanted to be like was Jennifer Lopez. The scenario I am pointing out will appear as impossible to the new generation. They have very little experience in handling problems by themselves as they have had everything handed to them by their hovering helicopter parents. The struggles of the depression, world war, equal rights and gender rights are not part of their upbringing. However, It is my hope, in facing any disastrous future events; they will rise up as have past generations, to the heights and become the new ‘Greatest Generation’.

Carl M Birkelbach 4/28/15

WHO ME WORRY?

After  yesterday’s  comments in the Investment Strategy Letter about my concern about a unexpected event, I have been asked to comment on what kind of events am I worried about? So, here goes!

Banks:  First of all, I’m worried about the banks. Whereas most banks let’s say 75% of them are theoretically in good shape, the 10 or 12 largest banks in the world I believe are undercapitalized and have taken on enormous risks by issuing derivatives. In today’s stock market in Europe bank stocks are down 1 ½%. There is concern about in a strong dollar, low oil prices, and US Fed policy. Then of course there is Greece, and its potential for bringing chaos to the European economic system. In the other problem in Europe is its ability to handle Muslim immigrant, who are coming into their borders by the millions. This is a long-term problem, but is just one more problem that Europe seems not be able to solve.

Cyberspace attack: Today’s New York Times has an article entitled Preparing for Warfare in Cyberspace. Just as we were unprepared for 9/11 the Pentagon doesn’t want to be left flat-footed again and has issued a new 33 page cyber security strategy to prepare the United States to retaliate, if necessary, against cyber attacks and is developing weapons to do so. The strategy document provides some transparency about the problem for which the military is expected to increase 6200 workers in a few years to help prepare us. As cyber threats have been increasing in severity and sophistication this report seems to be closing the barn door after the horses of already escaped. In my opinion, this effort is too little and too late and should be viewed as a global issue, not just a US problem.

Spoofing, And then of course we have our unintentional homegrown terrorists that manipulate markets, which can contribute to such disasters as the flash crash of May 6, 2010. Navinder Sarao, a British trader, working out of his parent’s home outside London, disrupted markets worldwide, by using spoofing techniques, or placing orders that he intended to cancel before they were filled. This is high-speed strategies  that exploits the fragmented nature of our trading system to make profits purely on time and speed. If this kind of damage can be done by someone who unintentionally damaged our marketplace,think of what kind of harm could be done intentionally with a cyberspace attack.

TERRORIST SURPRISES Recent events in Paris, added new uncertainty to the marketplace. We have all heard of the Black Swan. THE BLACK ELEPHANT is similar to the Black Swan, as it is something we had not expected. The differences is that THE BLACK ELEPHANT, was there the whole time right in front of us for all of us to see, but we choose not to see it.( More properly it should have been called  ‘the gorilla in the room’ but the New York Times coined  BLACK ELEPHANT). The markets so far have chosen to ignore some really negative factors that I see so plainly and so far the market just goes higher!

The radical Muslim world, has found a new way to terrorize the ‘infidels’ in the West. Rather than staging huge terrorist acts, such as 9/11, this new activity of random terrorize acts in various places throughout the globe could unstablize  our Western economies. Events such as the savagery of ISIS, beheadings, the Boston marathon attack, the female genital mutilation’s, the abduction of girls in Nigeria, the execution of the  innocence in Iran, the slaughtering and enslaving of Christians in Egypt and Africa, and various other crimes against humanity committed by those who claim to represent Islam, have so far seemed at a distance from most of us. However, the recent events in Paris could happen anywhere: in our local grocery stores or theaters or sporting events. If these kind of events persist or increase, economic disruptions may occur. Then there is the ‘gorilla in the room’ and the ultimate BLACK ELEPHANT that everyone one is thinking about, but not talking about and that is the use of a ‘dirty nuclear devise” in a major city. Sorry, but in my opinion, I have to mention that the possibility of this occurring is high!

Dirty Bomb or Worse!  It is no secret, that building a bomb such as we exploded over Hiroshima  is a matter primarily of obtaining the right kind of plutonium. Once obtained, a critical mass and explosion can result by just dropping half the required product on the other half.  Radical religious fanatics and the nuclear age are not a good combination. So, is very important that weapons grade uranium stay out of the hands of terrorists. All of our, the US, weapons grade uranium, is fabricated and stored in Oak Ridge Tennessee in a facility called Y – 12. As you would imagine, this facility is guarded with extreme care for by some 500 security officers authorized to use lethal force within its protected area. Y – 12 is called the Fort Knox of uranium storage. However, as reported in a March 9, 2015 New Yorker  Magazine article, three people,  belonging to the Plowshares organization ( inspired by the legendary pacifist  Dorothy  Day) were able to elude all these defenses and on July 28, 2012 spray-painted the storage facility. What makes this breach of security even more unbelievable is that all three people were elderly and one, was an 82-year-old nun named Macon Rice. If this is how insecure our plutonium is, one can only imagine what it is like in places like Pakistan and Russia.

In the Economist Magazine dated March 7, 2015 their cover picture had to intercontinental missiles in flight. Entitled the new nuclear age. They indicated that every nuclear power is spending lavishly to upgrade its atomic arsenals; Russia’s defense budget has grown by over 50% of which a third is devoted to nuclear weapons. France and China are adding to its stocks and investing heavily in submarine and mobile missile batteries. Pakistan is amassing dozens of battlefield nukes to make up for its inferiority to India. The United States has asked for $350 billion to undertake a decade-long program of modernization of America’s arsenal. The new arsenal includes low level tactical nuclear delivery systems. Why is this happening?  Some countries want nuclear weapons to prop up a tottering state. Others want nuclear weapons not to freeze the status quo but to change it. China’s nuclear expansion is designed to give them a chance to retaliate using a second strike, should American attempt to destroy its arsenal. Taiwan could escalate alarmingly. According to the Economist Magazine, using nuclear weapons in a limited way is being reconsidered as an alternative to conventional military weapons.

‘CLIMATE CHANGE’, OR AS I LIKE TO CALL IT ‘GLOBAL WARMING’!

Whereas there is a wide scale difference of opinion of what causes climate change, there seems to be no question that is happening. Even Pope Francis has announced that he is going to issue an encyclical about our responsibilities to deal with this problem on a worldwide basis. From the church that burned Bruno at the stake and threatened to excommunicate Galileo, historically this is quite a nod to the advantage of scientific method, discovery and problem solving. According to many scientists, the effects of global warming, because of increased carbon dioxide in our atmosphere, is now inevitable. Most people believe that global warming will not affect our generation. However California, our agricultural Eden, is quickly turning into a desert. Without the irrigation from a diminished Colorado River our food sources would be cut in half. Expect surprises.

THE BLACK SWAN

As our once Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld said,” it’s not what you don’t know, it’s what you don’t, know that you don’t know.” All the other problems above are problems that we recognize. However sometimes, there are problems that are not on our radar screen and unexpected that can occur. What comes to mind first, is a meteorite or excessive volcanic disruptions? When one is younger, one tends to dam the torpedoes. However, as one ages, one realizes that the veil that covers civilization is very thin and can be disrupted easily. I have been an optimist my whole life. But I have not in my lifetime experienced such hubris and overconfidence. In a current book by David Brooks entitled Road to Character, he is concerned about the percentage of high school students within A average or better that  have increased by more than 80% in two generations. In a Gallup poll from 1950 high school students were asked if they considered themselves very important. In 1950 the average was 12% while by 2005 the figure was 80% and a more recent survey of middle schoolgirls nearly twice as many said they wanted to be a personal assistant to a celebrity, than to be the president of Harvard, and the person they most wanted to be like was Jennifer Lopez. The scenario I am pointing out will appear as impossible to the new generation. They have very little experience in handling problems by themselves as they have had everything handed to them by their hovering helicopter parents. The struggles of the depression, world war, equal rights and gender rights are not part of their upbringing. However, It is my hope, in facing any disastrous future events; they will rise up as have past generations, to the heights and become the new ‘Greatest Generation’.

Carl M Birkelbach 4/28/15

SELL SELL SELL

There are ongoing concerns that Greece and its creditors are struggling to find a deal that can keep the country from defaulting on its debt. I continue to believe that Europe is just kicking the can down the road for Greece and eventually it will not make its payments to the International Monetary Fund due in May. Also an oncoming problem is our corporate earnings for the first quarter. Honeywell international fell 2% after reporting disappointing first-quarter results and American Express revenues fell short of expectations and drove the stock down more than 4%. Investors are concerned that disappointing corporate earnings for the Standard & Poor’s 500 are expected to report earnings down 1.6% from a year earlier. That would be the first quarterly drop since 2009. There was also worrisome news from China. After markets closed in Asia, Chinese financial regulators issued warnings about that countries soaring stock market. Regulators said they will tighten rules on borrowing to buy stocks. The Shanghai stock market has more than doubled in the last 12 months. Chinese regulators recognize that it could have created a bubble and now it is trying to rein back speculation.

US PRIMACY ON WOLD ECONOMICIS IS SEEN EBBING

The above title is not mine but that of the New York Times headline on Saturday, April 18. Below the title is the subtitle of “concerns expressed as world leaders meet.” The article begins, “as world leaders converge here for their semiannual trek to the capital of what is still the world’s most powerful economy, concerned is rising in many quarters that the United States is retreating from global economic leadership just when it is most needed.” The article indicates that there is a chaotic global shift, especially toward China which the Obama administration appears helpless to stop. For years, China has threatened to establish institutions to rival those dominated by the West, like the IMF, World Bank and Asian development Bank and even to establish its currency as a reserve currency to rival the dollar. In the meantime, the United States has had problems securing a 12 nation Pacific trade agreement has set off perhaps the biggest fight of his presidency within his own party with trade unions, environmentalists and liberal’s activities lining up in opposition to the White House. Even the Export Import Bank a lending institution could be killed by June, by a concert by conservatives in Congress. A former Obama treasury official now with Peterson Institute said “we’re withdrawing from the central place we held on the international stage.” Failure to bolster the IMF and other institutions could weaken the West’s  hand in the confrontations like the one with Russia over the Ukraine, and fears that the IMF and World Bank will be unable to rebuild the shattered countries in the Middle East. Sen. Tim Kane Democrat of Virginia said “the network of international rules and institutions is a peculiar US creation that has helped foster peace and prosperity for decades. The US has built this up not only for our own benefit but for the world. That we are now stepping back from a leadership role is highly problematic.”

KEEP AN EYE ON THE CHART BELOW FOR BREAK OUT POINTS BELOW RESISTANCE OR ABOVE SUPPORT AREAS. Particularly  watch for a breakout below Dow 17,147/17,000, NASDAQ 4605/4545, S&P 500   1991/1973. That would change the Intermediate trend to DOWN

THE STOCK MARKET HAS BEEN IN A TRADING RANGE ALL YEAR

Since the beginning of the year the US stock markets have been in a close trading range. For the Dow the top of the range is 18,288 and a bottom of the range at 17,147; and for the NASDAQ the high is 5042 and a low of 4605 and for the Standard & Poor’s 500 the high as 2120 and a low of 1991. Soon one of these areas is going to be broken either on the top or on the bottom. As this is and continues to be a Bull Market, it is most likely that the breakouts will be on the top. However, we continue to believe that the forces on the negative side are strong and will eventually win out. In the meantime, enjoy the bull market until it breaks below the bottom range that we have indicated.

There are ongoing concerns that Greece and its creditors are struggling to find a deal that can keep the country from defaulting on its debt. I continue to believe that Europe is just kicking the can down the road for Greece and eventually it will not make its payments to the International Monetary Fund due in May. Also an oncoming problem is our corporate earnings for the first quarter. Honeywell international fell 2% after reporting disappointing first-quarter results and American Express revenues fell short of expectations and drove the stock down more than 4%. Investors are concerned that disappointing corporate earnings for the Standard & Poor’s 500 are expected to report earnings down 1.6% from a year earlier. That would be the first quarterly drop since 2009. There was also worrisome news from China. After markets closed in Asia, Chinese financial regulators issued warnings about that countries soaring stock market. Regulators said they will tighten rules on borrowing to buy stocks. The Shanghai stock market has more than doubled in the last 12 months. Chinese regulators recognize that it could have created a bubble and now it is trying to rein back speculation.

US PRIMACY ON WOLD ECONOMICIS IS SEEN EBBING

The above title is not mine but that of the New York Times headline on Saturday, April 18. Below the title is the subtitle of “concerns expressed as world leaders meet.” The article begins, “as world leaders converge here for their semiannual trek to the capital of what is still the world’s most powerful economy, concerned is rising in many quarters that the United States is retreating from global economic leadership just when it is most needed.” The article indicates that there is a chaotic global shift, especially toward China which the Obama administration appears helpless to stop. For years, China has threatened to establish institutions to rival those dominated by the West, like the IMF, World Bank and Asian development Bank and even to establish its currency as a reserve currency to rival the dollar. In the meantime, the United States has had problems securing a 12 nation Pacific trade agreement has set off perhaps the biggest fight of his presidency within his own party with trade unions, environmentalists and liberal’s activities lining up in opposition to the White House. Even the Export Import Bank a lending institution could be killed by June, by a concert by conservatives in Congress. A former Obama treasury official now with Peterson Institute said “we’re withdrawing from the central place we held on the international stage.” Failure to bolster the IMF and other institutions could weaken the West’s  hand in the confrontations like the one with Russia over the Ukraine, and fears that the IMF and World Bank will be unable to rebuild the shattered countries in the Middle East. Sen. Tim Kane Democrat of Virginia said “the network of international rules and institutions is a peculiar US creation that has helped foster peace and prosperity for decades. The US has built this up not only for our own benefit but for the world. That we are now stepping back from a leadership role is highly problematic.”

KEEP AN EYE ON THE CHART BELOW FOR BREAK OUT POINTS BELOW RESISTANCE OR ABOVE SUPPORT AREAS. Particularly  watch for a breakout below Dow 17,147/17,000, NASDAQ 4605/4545, S&P 500   1991/1973. That would change the Intermediate trend to DOWN