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Monthly Archives: March 2019

More Books

06 Wednesday Mar 2019

Posted by Carl M. Birkelbach in Uncategorized

≈ Leave a comment

Kleptocracy (from Greek κλέπτης kléptēs, “thief”, κλέπτω kléptō, “I steal”, and -κρατία –kratía from κράτος krátos, “power, rule”) is a government with corrupt leaders (kleptocrats) that use their power to exploit the people and natural resources of their own territory in order to extend their personal wealth and political powers.

New Books;

Truth in our Times by David E McCabe The New York Times lawyer says it all with his subtille: Inside the fight for Press Freedom in the age of Alternative Facts. As the Peresident tries to surpress critical voices of  our long established First Amendment rights, this book speaks out. (while it can)

Truth in our Times by David E McCabe The New York Times lawyer says it all with his subtille: Inside the fight for Press Freedom in the age of Alternative Facts. As the Peresident tries to surpress critical voices of  our long established First Amendment rights, this book speaks out. (while it can)

The Threat by Andrew McCabe. Written by the former FBI diector after Come. Writes “Trump has shown that he does not know what domocracy means. He takes no action to protct it.” The warnings are familiar.

The University of Oxford just predicted that 47% of all US jobs are at risk of being replaced by robuts and artificial intelligence in 15 years.

The Robuts are Comming by Andres Oppenheimer. sub-titled; The Future of Jobs in the Age of Automation. The last time an Oppenheimer had a message for us, it was as explosive and as devestaying as this forcast.

The Globotics Upheval: by Rus Belt Just kidding! by Richard Baldwin. Sub-titled: Globalization, Robotics and the Future World. Algorithms will also take ove whit-coloar jobs.

Rise of Robuts by Martin Ford. sub tiltled Technology and the Threat of a Jobles Future. He says, when the employment appocaplice comes, it will happen so fast that workers wont have no time to adjust.

Okay! I don’t know what to worry about 1st, the end of democracy, New York under water because of ‘global warming’ or the comming of a dystopia civilization led by the robuts. There are some advantages of being 79!

Recent Important Books:

Democracy in Chains by Nancy MacLean explains in detail of how the Koch brothers and the Mercers are executing  a plan to divide the US through our fear of multiculturalism and racial differences.With the fall of the Berlin wall in 1991 and the end of the Soviet Union, the consensus though in the US was that capitalism and the western concept of the market place had won. As last, humanity was moving toward the “Omega Point’ of philosopher/monk Pierre Teilhard de Chardin where enlightenment, reason and civility would prevail. Instead, we face which seems like an endless cycle of greed, inequality, dishonesty, bigotry, intolerance, theocracy and authoritarianism. The harmful side effects of successful capitalism and globalization have created distress on workers, who find themselves increasingly replaced with automation and lower priced labor.

While some of these problems are systemic, there are two outside influences that have conspired to change our governing process. 1) One side comes from the far-left of the Koch brothers and their Cato Institute and the Mercer family and their now defunct Cambridge Analytic and their associates that have plans to subvert the will of the democratic majority and tilt the playing field forever in favor of the rich and powerful. 2) The other influence comes from the totalitarianism and the oligarchy of Russia and other authoritarian governments that are leaning to the far right, where fascism is winning over individualism and equality. Everything Russia does is to undermine Western structures and government, so their form of government of gross inequality appears preferable to their people. Russia’s Putin has hacked our bank accounts, undermined our media with fake news and influence our elections. Whether we know it or not, our country is under attack.

Fear by Bob Woodward. New Yorker Magazine said about the book, ‘The real crime is already in plain sight” Democracy is getting crushed and the ultimate outcome, unlike Nixon, will not be pretty.The Road to Unfreedom by Robert Snyder which explains how Putin is executing a plan to have us loose faith in our institutions ( the Presidency, the rule of law, NATO, NAFTA, the safety of our identity and our financial information) though cyber attacks. Can Democracy Survive Global Capitalism by Robert Kuttner describes how Fascism is winning throughout the world and how the US oligarchy and corporations have captured the machinery of the government to promote it. and  Yes we still Can by Dan Pheiffer, tells a story of Russia and Trump influencing the Republican Party for an upcoming constitutional crisis. War vs Peace by Ronan Farrow:that tell s how diplomacy of the state department is being replaced by military policy; Us vs Them by Ian Bremmer: tells how we are being distracted from solutions of automation and globalization by political rhetoric.  Tailspin by Steven Brill how the aristocracy and oligarchy are perpetuating a take it all attitude, that will make our economic system dis-functional. A novel: Ready Player One by Ernest Cline that presents a virtual reality world of the future. Evicted:Poverty and Profit in the America City by Matthew Desmond;6,000 people are evicted every day! How Democracies Die by Steven Levitsky; How we are headed for a economic and political disaster.The Common Good by Robert Reich, an attempt to see the value of a progressive political policy to solve inequality.

Three books that I have  read with a positive attitude:Hope in the Dark by Rebecca Solnit;Talks about maintaining a positive mental attitude. Enlightenment Now by Steven Pinker tells about how the macro world is a much better place than ever before.and The Soul of America by Jon Meacham; While the American story has not always—or even often—been heroic, we have been sustained by a belief in progress even in the gloomiest of times., “The good news is that we have come through such darkness before”—as, time and again, Lincoln’s better angels have found a way to prevail. I doubt it, but lets pray for solutions. I believe the world is now at a tipping point and is moving toward  destruction (nuclear or autocratic oligarchy).

More Books:

  • The Age of Stagnation by Satvajit Das. This book explains the failures of central banks to stop an economic and financial catastrophe. His solution is austerity, which seems unlikely to happen
  • The Only Game in Town by El-Erain. He believes that central banks cannot avoid a financial catastrophe with monetary policy alone and needs fiscal policy to aid the economy. With Republican Congress, this does not seem possible.
  • Dark Money and the rise of the radical right, by Jane Mayer. This book explains how economic growth is unsustainable if eighty people own 50% of the world’s wealth and 1% of people own more than the 90% of wealth in the US. (dah!)
  • The Fourth Industrial Revolution by Klaus Schwab. This book shows what a wonderful world of technological wonders awaiting us once we get through this economic and financial catastrophe. EVENTUALLY, the only problem is, once Artificial Intelligence has access to unlimited knowledge in the cloud and is able to reproduce itself, silicon based intelligence will not need carbon based intelligence The next step in evolution?. However, that’s a problem for another day.
  • Don’t’ forget the classic THIS TIME ITS DIFFERENT by Carmen Reinhart: It tells the story of eight centuries of Financial Folly. Each time after a catastrophe, such as the Great Depression or 2008, economists agree that it could never happen again. Who could be so stupid as to let six banks control 70% of the US assets (to big to fail) and allow all the economic growth to go to the 1%, while eighty people own 50% of the world’s wealth? NAH!
  • THE END OF ALCHEMY  Mervin King, the former governor of the Bank of England argues that, 7 years after the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, “nothing fundamental has changed.” Most academic and media narratives, he writes, focus on symptoms, of swelling personal debt, the housing bubble, misdeeds of banks. However, the underlying PROBLEM is a system of banking greed to convert risk-less deposits into long-term risky investments (loans to oil companies for example, See below), all the while assuring depositors that they can redeem their money at any time. King points out that, in the 19th and 20th centuries, banking crisis’s occurred almost once a decade. Preventing the next one “requires radical reforms”  including obliging major banks to maintain enough equity to stay losses without taxpayer support.
  • HOMO DEUS Yuval Noah Harari, author.“There was a time when the oligarchy needed the public to fight their wars, to manufacture their goods, produce their food and buy their products. That time is quickly coming to an end. Wars can no longer be fought on either a conventional or a nuclear basis. Wars are too expensive, impractical and are dangerous to all. Manufacturing of goods and food can now be done by a few, with automation. The oligarchy no longer needs the public to buy its goods, as it is completely independently wealthy. It will no longer be to our advantage to serve the common good. Over the past century humankind has managed to do the impossible and rein in famine, plague, and war. This may seem hard to accept, but, as Harari explains in his trademark style—thorough, yet riveting—famine, plague and war have been transformed from incomprehensible and uncontrollable forces of nature into manageable challenges. For the first time ever, more people die from eating too much than from eating too little; more people die from old age than from infectious diseases; and more people commit suicide than are killed by soldiers, terrorists and criminals put together. The average American is a thousand times more likely to die from binging at McDonalds than from being blown up by Al Qaeda.What then will replace famine, plague, and war at the top of the human agenda? As the self-made gods of planet earth, what destinies will we set ourselves, and which quests will we undertake? Homo Deus explores the projects, dreams and nightmares that will shape the twenty-first century—from overcoming death to creating artificial life. It asks the fundamental questions: Where do we go from here? And how will we protect this fragile world from our own destructive powers? This is the next stage of evolution.
  • THE CRISIS OF THE MIDDLE CLASS CONSTITUTION. Why economic inequality threatens our republic. For most of Western history, Sitaraman argues, constitutional thinkers assumed economic inequality was inevitable and inescapable—and they designed governments to prevent class divisions from spilling over into class warfare. The American Constitution is different. Compared to Europe and the ancient world, America was a society of almost unprecedented economic equality, and the founding generation saw this equality as essential for the preservation of America’s republic. Over the next two centuries, generations of Americans fought to sustain the economic preconditions for our constitutional system. But today, with economic and political inequality on the rise, Sitaraman says Americans face a choice: Will we accept rising economic inequality and risk oligarchy or will we rebuild the middle class and reclaim our republic? The Crisis of the Middle-Class Constitution is a tour de force of history, philosophy, law, and politics. It makes a compelling case that inequality is more than just a moral or economic problem; it threatens the very core of our constitutional system.
  •  The Vanishing American Adult. By Nebraska Republican Senator Benjamin Sasse.Senator Sasse earned a doctorate in history and before his election in 2014 he was a federal health official and president of Midland University, which is linked with the evangelistic Lutheran Church. He is a conservative Republican who refused to back Trump.  The Senator was critical of trumps recent firing of FBI director James Coley. His new book is subtitled, ‘Our coming of age crisis and how to rebuild a cultural of self-reliance’, grows out of his experience as a parent of the three children he raises with his wife in Melissa Nebraska. In an interview on and NPR radio, he said they shipped their kids to farms and ranches in Nebraska to learn some big life lessons. He said he wants them to get dirt under their fingernails. He says these experiences will help build scar tissue for the sole. He thinks we are doing a bad job of helping our children to understand that they have to develop resiliency. He said preserving and getting through hardships makes you tough. He said that we are failing and a bunch of fundamental ways to distinguish for our children between ‘needs’ and ‘wants’ and are failing to distinguish between ‘production’ and ‘consumption’. He said this book is not an old man screaming get off my lawn! It is a question of how do we do better or please Work on my Lawn. He thinks the category of perpetual adolescents is a new thing and is dangerous. Adolescence he says is about intentionally transforming from childhood into adulthood. Being stuck in adolescence is a Peter Pan to dystopia, as children forget that Neverland is a bad place to be.  He believes it is a good thing for children to learn how to work and to help them find meaning in their work. He states, that it is not natural to have to suffer when we work as we are made to be productive and yet the worlds we live in has a whole bunch of suffering. And what children need to understand at 10, so that when their 16 years old and 20 years old, they’re moving into a truly semi-independent state that they have earned through an experience and memory of persevering and having gotten through hardships. He also criticizes Washington DC politicians that seem addicted to their own incumbency.
  • ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE UPON REQUEST
    Carl does not offer investment advice, but merely his own personal opinion. This report has been prepared from original sources and data we believe reliable but make no representations as to the accuracy or completeness. Carl , his affiliates and subsidiaries and/or their officers and employees may from time to time acquire, hold or sell a position in securities. Past performance is no guarantee of future success. Upon request, we will supply additional information. CarlBis@aol.com
  • Carl M Birkelkbach

The Investment Strategy Letter #724

03 Sunday Mar 2019

Posted by Carl M. Birkelbach in Uncategorized

≈ Leave a comment

Dow close to breaking into new record high!

The Dow Industrial Average is up 17% since November and is close to breaking above its all-time high of 26,828 set October 3, 2018 by breaking above it previous high set January 26, 2018 at 26,616. However, economic growth appears to be slowing.

THE CONFERENCE BOARD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, 2018-2019
Percentage change, seasonally adjusted annual rates (except where noted)

 

  2018 2019 2018 2019 2020
  1st
half
III
Q*
IV
Q
I
Q
 II
Q
2nd
Half
ANNUAL ANNUAL ANNUAL
Real
GDP
3.2 3.4 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.2 2.9 2.7 2.2
Real
Consumer
Spending
2.2 3.5 3.1 2.5 2.6 2.4 2.7 2.8 2.4
Residential
Investment
-2.4 -3.5 0.0 0.5 0.7 1.0 0.0 -0.1 1.4
Real
Capital
Spending
10.1 2.5 4.0 4.1 4.5 4.9 6.8 4.4 4.8
Exports 6.4 -4.9 4.1 3.8 3.6 3.7 4.1 3.0 3.7

 

Prosperity and the Political implications.

In particular, growth for exports at 3.7% in 2020 is questionable, depending upon how the China negotiations work out. (More below) Republicans are touting how great the economy is doing. However, the economic blast from the recent tax cuts to the rich, that caused a $2 trillion dollar increase to our debt and the 2018 budget deficit of $779 billion, have only had a temporary effect. GDP growth in 2019 is forecast as up only 2.7% and 2020 up a measly 2.2%.

This slowing of growth could have significant political implications as President Trump’s popularity depends significantly on economic prosperity. Recent surveys have indicated that Trump’s base indicates that as long as the economy is doing well, they care little about the president’s lies (8500+ and counting) or his misogyny, or his obstruction of justice, or his racism or his denial of global warming or his preferential treatment of autocratic leaders, or his lack of empathy for equal upward mobility, or his separation of children from their parents, or his negation of NATO, or that his ‘swamp’ is full admitted law breakers and incompetents, or his lack of concern about anything except his own personal business interests and his popularity. Just as virtues reward, is virtue itself (Spinoza), vice and moral derogation have consequences for those that are complicit.

According to a recent Pew Research report, the United States, as ranked against other nations, is 36th in health care, 44th in math scores, 39th in basic education, 34th in access to clean water, 35th in meeting basic human needs, has the highest first day infant mortality rate and the highest child poverty rate at 21% among industrialized nations.  That’s one in every five of our children living in poverty!  As great nation, we must be better than that.

For me, it all comes down to this question; Is it human nature for us to be virtuous, kind and fair for the common good by seeking pluralistic solutions through a democratic process OR Is it human nature for us to be emotionally swayed by our greed and prejudices and to deliver our power and trust to an autocratic government of a demagogue? The battle for the hearts, minds and votes of the public continues as I speak.

As Bob Dillon sang, “The battle outside is raging! It’ll rattle your windows.  And shake down your walls. For the times they are a changing! And maybe this time, because of populism, things may not be a changing for the better! To quote from Nietzsche “The love of power is the demon of men. Let them have everything – yet the demon waits and waits and will be satisfied.” Or as the Pogo cartoon says; “We have seen the enemy and it is us!”

China

The Chinese currency has dropped to its lowest level in many years. Possible tariffs could toss China into a recession where growth is already slowing. China’s banks have given loans to questionable companies as $1.3 trillion of corporate loans are owned by companies were profits will not cover their interest payments. The problem in China could trigger banks losses that could start a worldwide recession. Money is flowing out of China. Tariffs will increase the problem. While some manufacturing jobs may come back to the US as a result of the tariffs, more jobs domestically may be lost, because the average American would have less spending power. The Peterson Institute for International Economics estimated that rather than bringing back jobs, Mister Trumps, tariffs could ‘result in a trade war and cost our economy more than 5 million jobs and possibly lead to a recession’.

I believe China is a ‘paper tiger’ that is not as big or as strong as it appears and is hampered by cronyism and corruption. Although China has a supposed $375 billion trade deficit with us, the actual figure is much smaller. For example, the export value give to the Apple X i-phone is $378. China contributes only $14 of the total cost for assembly while the rest of the cost is run through supply chains in the US and the rest of the world. Our trade balance ignores the value created by other countries that have preceded China in the chain. Tariffs may kill more jobs than it saves. In fact The Foreign Policy Association estimates that one dollar spent on Chinese imports is about 75 cents that goes into the US economy and that every job created in the metal industry through tariffs, would eliminate 16 jobs in other industries.

China doesn’t even believe its own statistics, as China’s provinces are growing faster than the whole. The China inflation rate is a government secret as they print money indiscriminately to bolster its shaky growth figures. Our Federal Reserve estimates that the US net worth is $60 trillion larger than China and yet, China’s money supply is estimated to be 75% LARGER THAN THE US.

With 20% of the world’s population they have only 8% of the world’s arable land and 10% of that is reported to be polluted. Coal still provides 70% of China’s power creating 16 of the worlds most polluted cities. About 435 of China’s 660 large cities are suffering from severe water depletion.

I fear China not because of its competition, but because of its vulnerability and possible effect on an upcoming economic crisis.

Kleptocracy (from Greek κλέπτης kléptēs, “thief”, κλέπτω kléptō, “I steal”, and -κρατία –kratía from κράτος krátos, “power, rule”) is a government with corrupt leaders (kleptocrats) that use their power to exploit the people and natural resources of their own territory in order to extend their personal wealth and political powers.

Carl M. Birkelbach

New Books;

The Threat by Andrew McCabe. Written by the former FBI diector after Come. Writes “Trump has shown that he does not know what domocracy means. He takes no action to protct it.” The warnings are familiar.

The University of Oxford just predicted that 47% of all US jobs are at risk of being replaced by robuts and artificial intelligence in 15 years.

The Robuts are Comming by Andres Oppenheimer. sub-titled; The Future of Jobs in the Age of Automation. The last time an Oppenheimer had a message for us, it was as explosive and as devestaying as this forcast.

The Globotics Upheval: by Rus Belt Just kidding! by Richard Baldwin. Sub-titled: Globalization, Robotics and the Future World. Algorithms will also take ove whit-coloar jobs.

Rise of Robuts by Martin Ford. sub tiltled Technology and the Threat of a Jobles Future. He says, when the employment appocaplice comes, it will happen so fast that workers wont have no time to adjust.

Okay! I don’t know what to worry about 1st, the end of democracy, New York under water because of ‘global warming’ or the comming of a dystopia civilization led by the robuts. There are some advantages of being 79!

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE UPON REQUEST
Carl does not offer investment advice, but merely his own personal opinion. This report has been prepared from original sources and data we believe reliable but make no representations as to the accuracy or completeness. Carl, his affiliates and subsidiaries and/or their officers and employees may from time to time acquire, hold or sell a position in securities. Past performance is no guarantee of future success. Upon request, we will supply additional information. CarlBis@aol.com

 

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