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Quiet, before the storm

Isn’t life wonderful? The Dow is above 17,000, the DAX is above 10,000, and the Nikkei is above 18,000 and oil is above the $45 a barrel. Although, there are still some shocks with earnings reports like Walmart and some banks, the earnings season does not seem to be affecting the stock market. However the big problem appears to be a threat government shutdown in November. Until that unknown is decided the Fed will probably stay on the sidelines by delaying any rate increase. The NASDAQ and the Russell 2000 has so far not followed the Dow and the S&P 500 into higher ground. If this rally is to continue, that must happen soon. So, keep your eye out for the NASDAQ to breakout above 4,960 or watch out below.

I continue to feel that the sideways market we have seen since September is an anomaly and that the Bear Market will continue again soon. In the meantime, enjoy the respite and prepare for the worst.

10/9/2015 Dow breaks above September high. Will the S&P and NASDAQ markets follow?

Wall Street is celebrating the dodging of a bullet, after the Dow industrial s broke out into high ground, above the August selloff 16,933 high. The markets seem to have shaken off a lot of negatives. China’s market went down 45%, commodity prices continued to fall, oil prices fell below $40 a barrel, and earnings forecast are lower, GDP has been foretasted lower from 2.4% to 1.9% for 2015. By negative scenario seems to be waived off in favor of hubris. There is a crack in the egg, but the egg remains intact. The Dow, appears to be leading the pack with the NASDAQ index and the Russell 1000 lagging behind. Consumers seem to be leading US economy away from any recession. Credit card debt is a share of GDP is dropped to 1994 lows. Mortgage debt is back to 2005 levels. However, a government shutdown in November could put our Bear Market scenario back on track.

I am surprised by the strength of the Dow. The question continues to remain will China in emerging markets hold of the US economy or will the US economy revitalize the global economy. China may be the key to this as 29 countries depend on China to buy at least 20% of their exports. We shall see? The stock markets in the US are showing some unexpected strength. After meeting our intermediate down side goal for the Dow Industrial’s and 15,331 in August, the markets have since been moving sideways. However, the Dow has broken above 16 933  September  high. If the S&P 500 goes above 2020, and the NASDAQ composite above 4960, our Bear Market scenario may be delayed.  I believe the new highs, if they do occur, will be temporary and will indicate an Elliott Wave a Un- Orthodox top, which is what occurred in 1929., This I believe will be a “false rally”. Do not join the crowd! The hubris is all hype at this level. The stage is set for not just a severe decline, but an economic scenario that will be very dangerous for everyone.

Why a stock market rally? As I said once before ‘It’s three men in a tub, rub a dub dub, nobody wants to pull the plug. There is talk, the Fed wants to delay increasing interest rates because of an unsure economy. Monetary policy, in my opinion, seems useless. The only thing, I believe can save this economic bear market scenario, is a progressive fiscal policy. This under current conditions will be impossible to execute.

I continue to see corporate earnings as weak, the bond market as dangerous, banks as a house of cards, and international emerging market growth as negative and my Bear Market deflation scenario as on track.

 Current Dow NASDAQ S&P 500
17,037 4,823 2,009
Short Term DOWN DOWN DOWN
Int. Term DOWN DOWN DOWN
Long Term SIDEWAYS? SIDEWAYS? SIDEWAYS?
Foretasted Trend DJIA NASDAQ S&P 500
Short Term Down Down Down
Int. Term Down Down Down
Long Term Bear Market? Bear Market? Bear Market?
Breakout Points DJIA NASDAQ S&P 500
Short Term Up (Resistance) 17,400 4,960 2,021
Short Term Down (Support) 15,881/ 15,651 4487//4506 1879/1867
Int. Term Up (Resistance) 18,352 5,231 2,134
Int. Term Down (Support)       15,651/

/15,370 /14,688/ 13,377

4,506//4,116/ 3,986/3294 1,867/ /1,560
Long Term Up (Resistance) 18,352 5,231 2,134
Long Term Down Fibonacci Support 50%12,000  62% 10,750     50%2,958  62% 2,555 50%1,390 62% 1,177
 10Treasury 2.02% Gold 1,188 Oil 46.21

 

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