The Investment Strategy BLOG

Although Mr. Birkelbach is no longer associated with the investment business, there have been many requests for a continuation of his dialogue in the tradition of the Investment Strategy Letter.  This blog is an attempt to continue that legacy. Carl is now among the few calling for a New Bear Market in his Lone Bear Letters, that began in January 2015 with a Dow of 17,750. He believes the economic blast from the recent tax cuts to the rich, that caused a $2 trillion dollar increase to our debt and the 2018 budget deficit of $779 billion, will  have only had a temporary effect. GDP growth in 2019 is forecast as up only 2.7% and 2020 up a measly 2.2%.Carl believes an economic disaster is festering, that could once again see the Dow below 10,000.

Carl  continues to write, because he feels that there is a need of an  independent voice outside the massive and powerful US financial industry, to warn investors of a view that the regulators and the financial industry would rather have silenced.

Carl Birkelbach was the editor of the INVESTMENT STRATEGY LETTER, which has reached a U.S.-wide audience in publication since 1975. In his past professional career he appeared frequently as an investment expert and securities market forecaster on television news programs and as a quoted source in journals and periodicals, including Barron’s, Crain’s, Business Week Reuters, the Chicago Sun-Times and the Chicago Tribune. He was a regular commentator on The Stock Market Business Report on WBBM Radio in Chicago. Mr Birkelbach is the author of the 1981 The Lone Bull Letters, Stock Market Forecasting through Charting, The Metaphysical Nature of Price Movements and The Investment Strategy Handbook for Volatile Markets See http://www.Care-for-u.org for historical references.


Because I have been right about this decline (2020), a lot of people are asking me what should they do, buy or sell? I wish I knew! For one thing, just because I have been right lately, doesn’t mean I have a special direct line to the answer. For one thing, I have been wrong for a long time. I issued the first Lone Bear Letter 1/23/2015, when the Dow was 17,672. Had you listened to me then, you would have missed out on the entire second half of the Great Bull Market from 2015 to 2020. However if you had instead invested in a CD’s at 3% a year, that would have offset every 500 point in the Dow for five years or 2,500 point. That would leave you about even now, with a current 20,100 Dow. But like me, you would have missed out on the thrill of making all that money, but avoided the agony of defeat, that  most investors now feel.

Anyway, what you should do now, depends a lot on your age, what kind of cash flow you have to meet your expenses and how diversified you are in other asset like real estate. So, ask your professional investment advisor what is best for you. If you read my page titled In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act” which is a quote by George Orwell; you will see that I believe that the Financial Industry has not fully disclosed to the public, that it should  be aware of the risks of stock market investing. Instead the Financial Industry give you the false advice that “on the long term, the stock market will always recover.” Keynes has a famous quote that states “in the long run, we will all be dead.” The point being, if you are depending on the stock market, it may not recover from any decline in time for when you need it.  During the period between 2000 and 2008 the stock market went down more than 50% twice, which was devastating for people who were retiring or sending their children to college during that period. If you invested in the Dow in 1998, it wasn’t until 2011, that you got your money back. Therefore, in full disclosure, I believe I should tell investors that investing in the stock market is dangerous and that most people should treat stock market investing only as a speculation and not as a form of savings.  Most people should not gamble with their savings.

So, my answer to the question of what should you do, is for most older people to not invest in the stock market, or if you are older, treat stock investing as a speculation with money you can afford to lose at least 50%. For you younger people and you older people that qualify, the opinion of what I say in this blog does not take in consideration your personal financial situation or your goals. My opinion is just that, my opinion of what I think the stock market will do, based on my questionable expertise.

Mr Birkelbach does not offer investment advise,merely his own personal opinion.This report has been prepared from original sources and data we believe reliable but make no representations as to the accuracy or completeness. Mr.Birkelbach , his affiliates and subsidiaries and/or their 
officers and employees may from time to time acquire, hold or sell a position in securities. Past performance is no guarantee of future success.Upon request, we will supply additional information. CarlBis@aol.com



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