THE LONE BEAR LETTER #3

TODAY: DOW HIGH 17,484, CLOSE 17,191 DOWN 195 OOPS!

It was other difficult day for the market today, as the Federal Reserve, continued to signal that there would be a US rate hike by the end of 2015. Stocks plummeted on the news, because higher interest rates could be very damaging to our fragile economy and bank balance sheets. There was more bad news in that crud oil prices fell 4% to $44.39 per barrel.(a deflationary signal) In addition the 10 year US treasury yield sank to 1.72%, the lowest since May 2, 2013 and the 30 year treasury slid to 2.29%, a record.

The situation in Greece didn’t help, as every banks fell 25%to 30%, in market value and yields Greek bonds rose above 10.5%. The Greek stock market plunged 9%. Greek government debt, stands at €323 billion or $366 billion, which is 175% of the country’s GDP. Not to be outdone was an announcement by the Russian government that it would pour 250 billion rubles or $3.7 billion from their national infrastructure fund into the country’s banks, on top of the 1 trillion rubles or $15 billion is already promised to bail out that sector. In addition, Russia is injecting another 300 billion rubles or $4.4 billion from the same fund into the state development bank, to boost lending. The central Russian banks have been forced to increase interest rates to 17% to defend the ruble. The Russian economy is set to contract by between 2.5% and 5% this year, due to lower oil prices and sanctions. As mentioned in the Lone Bear Letter, an unstable Russia is not good for the world.

The Bears are finally beginning to raise their ugly head on Wall Street, because of four factors: falling oil prices, stagnant wages, and the two edge sword of a strong US dollar and a stagnant world economy. During the Obama administration crude oil production has increased 72%, producing 3.6 million additional barrels of day. This has been the greatest oil boom in the nation’s history and has occurred during the tenure of a self proclaimed environmentalist President. Also the latest announcement by Obama, is that he is going to open up oil production on the East Coast.
Although NASDAQ stocks are only selling at approximately 30 times earnings, nowhere near the bubble that occurred in 2000, there are a lot of companies that are worth billions of dollars that have no earnings AS FOLLOWS;

Here are 15 other tech companies worth billions despite making no money:aS REPORTED FROM cnn MONEY WEB SITE:

1. Snapchat: At $10 billion, fast-growing Snapchat is one of the world’s most valuable private tech startups. Yet the messaging service generates little revenue — let alone profits — and it recently sparked privacy concerns.

2. Box: The online filing sharing company is poised to go public on Friday after a number of false starts. But Box recently revealed it suffered a $170 million loss in its latest year of results.

3. Twitter: More than a year after its much-hyped IPO, Twitter (TWTR, Tech30) is still posting huge losses. The social network has failed to reach the must-have status thatFacebook (FB, Tech30) landed years ago.

4. Zynga: The fact Zynga (ZNGA) is trading roughly 75% below its 2011 IPO price shows just how hard it is to consistently churn out mobile games people actually want to play.

5. Instagram: Facebook acquired Instagram for $1 billion back in 2012, but analysts say the photo-sharing app is unlikely to be profitable. Yet it could soon be in the black as users continue to flock to the service and advertisers start to latch on too.

6. Amazon.com: Jeff Bezos has driven Amazon (AMZN, Tech30) investors crazy by investing so heavily in the company (see: drone delivery) that profits are wiped out. Yet it’s tough to argue with Amazon’s track record given its $138 billion market valuation.

7. BlackBerry: The company helped invent the smartphone market but it clearly failed to keep up with it. While CEO John Chen has stopped the bleeding, BlackBerry (BBRY,Tech30) remains a shell of its former self.

8. Pandora: After its shares skyrocketed in 2013, Pandora (P) has come back to earth as the music company grapples with huge content costs.

9. Weibo: It’s known as China’s Twitter and just like the U.S. company Weibo (WB) is also unprofitable for now.

10. Zillow and 11. Trulia: Both are huge names in the online house-hunting business and both Zillow (Z) and Trulia (TRLA) are unprofitable. Soon they’ll also be under the same roof.

12. Sprint: The wireless company isn’t just stuck in the red, it’s wildly unprofitable. Sprint(S) is expected to lose $2 billion in its current fiscal year and another $1.2 billion next year.

13. Square: Heavy investment in new products have kept Square unprofitable. But that didn’t prevent the mobile payments startup from recently landing a $6 billion valuation.

14. JD.com: The Chinese online retailer is unprofitable but JD.com (JD) is betting heavy investment will translate into profit-making market share gains.

15. Sony: Easily the oldest company on this list, Sony (SNE) is on track for its sixth loss in seven years due to weak demand for its TVs and cameras.

CARL M BIRLELBACH 1/28/2015

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE UPON REQUEST
Mr Birkelbach does not offer investment advice, but merely his own personal opinion. This report has been prepared from original sources and data we believe reliable but make no representations as to the accuracy or completeness. Mr.Birkelbach , his affiliates and subsidiaries and/or their officers and employees may from time to time acquire, hold or sell a position in securities. Past performance is no guarantee of future success. Upon request, we will supply additional information. CarlBis@aol.com

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