Predictions for 2024

My latest prediction: 2024 could be a very dangerous year for the stock market, because of the uncertain situation in US politics. The stock market hates uncertainty. What if Biden get sick? What if there are
riots because of the Trump court cases. What if Trump is elected and found guilty and announces as president  he will pardonens himself and all the others. Will Truth and the Law will no longer matter? What if China becomes more unstable? What if more banks start failing as they  take over unwanted worthless commercial real estate? Also the stock market is ending the year 2023 at an all time high, led by only 7 stocks. Very vulnerable.

Dow 37,385  to 30,000    NASDAQ 14, 992 to 11,000   S&P 500  4,754 to 3,000

Why is the Stock Market doing so Well Now?

All of my negative predictions have become a reality and still the stock market makes new highs. It is puzzling and frustrating. Maybe, since retirement, I am no longer in touch with “Wall Street?” Anyway here is my opinion and view: 1) I predicted that US debt, which INCREASED FROM $7 TRILLION TO $20 TRILLION during the Obama Administration,(to combat the 2008 Bush economic debacle) would be terrible for the country.  It was, but nobody seemed to care that all the money went to save the banks, while 11 million people lost their  homes. The US could have simply guaranteed the mortgages and the money could have been used for national health care and eliminating US poverty.  2) I predicted that the Trump Administration and the Republican Party was good at winning elections, but had little interest in running the government.  (Even though candidate Trump promised he would“pay off the US debt in eight years”) My dire prediction turned out to be true, as Trump reduced taxes for the rich, which raised the US debt from $20 trillion to $28 trillion. Once again, progressive‘safety net’ measures were ignored and the rich grew richer and the poor got poorer and the stock market went up.  3) I predicted that Covid 19 would paralyze the economy, mainly because President Trump was ignoring its severity and proper precautions (masks and immunization). Over 1 million people died and yet the stock market went up as the Biden Administration fought off the effects of the slowdown in the economy with more US debt, increasing it from $28 trillion to$31 trillion. We have spent all our $ bullets and only Corporate America
and the super-rich have won. (Five US families have more wealth than the bottom
40%).Too much of this sort of winning, by raising debt can be costly, like households that
may end up eventually losing its ability to find buyers for its debt.

We could have used this money  to give every american free healthcare, end poverty and  provide free collegege for all who qualify.

4) I predicted that  banks were in trouble. They were, but the US government guaranteed the deposits. (See how easyit is to help the banks, but not the homeowners). There is still a problem with
the banks but it is temporarily being ignored. 5) I have been predicting that there is economic trouble in China. Suddenly everyone is writing about it (Economist Magazine, the Wall Street Journal
and the NYT). Still the stock market goes up. https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/21/economy/china-economy-troubles-intl-hnk/index.html 6) I have been warning that empty commercial office space will eventually hurt the banks and therefor the whole US economy. See a 9/1/2023 NYT article, ‘All That OfficeSpace Belongs to Someone.”https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/01/business/office-vacancies-gural-gfp.html Although more office workers are back at their desks than a year ago,
attendance at office buildings in New York, Boston, Atlanta, Chicago, San
Francisco and other cities is well below pre-pandemic levels. As leases come up
for renewal, companies are often opting for smaller offices, leaving landlords
with millions of square feet in vacant space. More space is expected to hit the
market in the coming months as leases expire and more than
100,000 technology workers have lost their jobs. According to a
recent study by business professors at Columbia and New York University, the
value of U.S. office buildings could plunge 39 percent, or $454 billion, in the
coming years.

Dow 37,385     NASDAQ 14, 992   S&P 500  4,754

Carl M Birkelbach

4/27/2023

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE UPON REQUEST
Mr Birkelbach does not offer investment advice, but merely his own personal opinion. This report has been prepared from original sources and data we believe reliable but make no representations as to the accuracy or completeness. Mr.Birkelbach , his affiliates and subsidiaries and/or their officers and employees may from time to time acquire, hold or sell a position in securities. Past performance is no guarantee of future success. Upon request, we will supply additional information. CarlBis@aol.com