HOW TO DESTROY AMERICA IN 100 DAYS

We have been fooled into complacency. Looking back through world history, periods of comfort, have been but brief interludes in an otherwise sea of chaos. More frequent have been times when the forces of authoritarian tyranny, irrationality, war, greed, bigotry, ignorance, suffrage, servitude and intolerance have ruled. Over the last 80 years, the United States of America has helped keep American’s and the world in their ‘Comfort Zone’ by creating an era of opportunity for freedom of thought, wisdom, compassion and generosity for the common good.  Our completive ‘market economy,’ rule of law and financial support has created the most prosperous period in world history. America understood that its citizens would prosper if the world grows richer and more peaceful.

All that ended, when Donald Trump became the 47^th President. In less than 100 days he has alienated our Allies, (like NATO nations and Canada and Mexico) leaving the US not first among nations, but ‘alone’ among nations, He has created ‘tariffs’ that  may cause a worldwide trade war, similar to what caused the 1929 stock market crash and the Depression, He has assailed government institutions and fired employees without notice, which are involved in equity, education, world health, global warming, scientific research, human aid, consumer protection, and the military and has appointed incompetent administrators for these institutions. He has disregarded human rights, as masked federal agent are snatching students off of sidewalks for voicing their opinion and deportation without due process. He has also normalized disregard for the judiciary, banned major law firms from federal buildings, harassed the  media and has attempted to dismantle the nations election system, He has recommended that the US become a predator and take Greenland as our own, because of its military strategic location.

The President has overturned political procedure and long lived tradition, without opposition. How can the President act alone? So far, the Republican Senate and House has not interfered with Trumps decision by using its ‘checks and balances.’  Trump is able to act alone, because on July 1, 2024, the Supreme Court ruled in a 6–3 decision that presidents have absolute immunity for acts committed as president within their core constitutional purview.

Secondly, there is a flaw in the United States Constitution that has been interpreted to grant the president broad ‘implied powers,’ in the form of ‘executive orders, ‘executive privilege,’ and ‘emergency powers’ to issue rules, regulations and instructions and deploy troops. All have the binding force of law, which ‘do not’ need the approval of the United States Congress. Also, The Aliens Enemies Act of John Adams in 1798, is still in effect. If applied, it gives the president additional powers during times of war, invasion, or predatory incursion. Although there is no ‘war,’ Congress has not, so far, stopped Trump from using The Aliens Enemies Act.

So why is he doing this? Putin couldn’t do a better job of destroying America, if he himself were the President of the US. I don’t understand. Thump is known not to do his homeward or research, but operates pretty successfully on gut instinct. He is well aware of the stock market crashing and is no doubt aware of his shrinking public popularity. The only conclusion I can make is that he believes he is doing the right thing. But that is stupid and he is not stupid, but one the world’s most clever people. The only alternative I can come up with is that he is knowingly trying to create chaos and a disaster. Why? He has actively talked about a 3ed term. Also he knows how mid-term elections traditionally go against the party in power. If the world is in an economic depression in 2026 (self-caused) and maybe even a military skirmish with China or North Korea, he can cancel the elections because of ‘a national emergency.’ There are some checklists for becoming a dictator, which President Trump has been following. The lists ends with creating an emergency (like a war or economic disaster) to close Congress, stop elections and remain in power for a lifetime.

We have already spent our reserve on keeping the stock market up: Whether the upcoming economic disaster is self-inflicted, due to stupidly or serendipitous, the stock markets hates uncertainty and the odds favor a big drop in stock prices yet to come.  Up until now the stock market rise was due to low interest rates, quantitative easing, cheap oil and unprecedented growth of debt.  Now all that has stopped and debts are already at dangerous levels. Global debt has risen from 74 trillion in 2019 to over $330 trillion now. US federal debt to GDP was in 1980 34.5%, 2000 57.9% and is now 2024 127% at $36 trillion. So we have spent our reserve on keeping the stock market up and forgetting about the common good. Now that we need it, debt may be at too high a level to safely increase it to this time buy us out of this recession turning it into a Depression!

THIS TIME ITS DIFFERENT by Carmen Reinhart  See the book, This Time it’s Different, Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff. This book is one of my favorites. It tells the story that each time after a catastrophe, such as the Great Depression or 2008, economists agree that it could never happen again. Who could be so stupid as to start a tariff war, let debt go to 127% of GDP and let six banks control 70% of the US assets (too big to fail) and allow all the economic growth to go to the top 1%, (and then give them tax cuts creating huge budget deficits), while eighty people own 50% of the world’s wealth? Reinhart tells about lessons from history, to show us how little we have learned and that we should prepare for future economic challenges, which are bound to happen again. In 2008, Standard and Poor’s ranked all mortgages as AAA, until they were worthless. Once again, incompetence rules and we are facing another disaster!

Sell Now: 4/1/2025 Dow 42,434, NASDAQ 17,744, S&P 500 5,703

Cancell this Buy Signal which I gave: ISL #732 March 20, 2020 Dow 19,175—NASDAQ, 7,502—S&P 2,542 “ONLY FOR THOSE WHO ARE YOUNG ENOUGH OR CAN TAKE RISK I suggest this ‘Investment Strategy Program’. Besides  investments in gold and the Bitcoin,  Set up a program’ to be ‘fully invested’ as follows:  Choose 21 of the best performing stocks like Amazon and 21 stocks that have big dividends and hold up well in down markets like Exxon. This portfolio should be updated every quarter.”

WHY STAY FULLY INVESTED? The financial industry approves of the Efficient Market Hypothesis Theory (EMHT), which proposes that it is impossible to beat the market by trading in and out and that investors should at all times be fully invested in the market in the aggregate, by owning an allocation of mutual funds, because in the long run the market will go up. The dangerous beauty of this theory is that accordingly, your goals will always be achieved sometime in the future. If you just ‘hang in there’ long enough you will make your money back. This gives investors a false sense of contentment. Everyone I talk to, is not worried. That makes me worry! They are all saying they are going to ride this decline out and ‘the market always bounce back.’ The average investor has few options to protect themselves except to get out of the market, which they have been trained, like Pavlov’s dog, to stay in the market for the long term. (Interest rates are too low not to be in the stock market). However, to quote John Maynard Keynes, “In the long term we are all dead!” As a reminder, in the last 20 years there were two stock market collapses of 50% each, one between 2000 and 2003 and the other between 2008 and 2009. Also a reminder, the Dow in 1998 was 9,000 and after trading both up and down in wild swings, was still at 9,000 in 2009, eleven years later. Not everyone is positioned to ‘buy and hold’.

Warning, A Political Opinion: Republicans promote an ideology Conservatism, saying they are for business, free markets, less taxes, less regulation, balanced budgets and guns. They are against abortion, immigrants, non-whites and they mistrust big government. However, this ideology is really a subterfuge to help get elected and to help the oligarchy. Under Trump, Conservatives disappeared, when it came to a balanced budget with huge tax cuts for the rich. Trump kept the voters’ attention away from the real issues of global competition, automation and a carbon free technology, while the super-rich played ‘winner take all’. What worries me most is what the Republicans are doing now. They are choosing getting elected over democracy. The Founders created a system that would produce the most virtuous people to govern. As Madison asked, “Is there no virtue among us?” If there be not, no form of government can render us secure. To suppose that any form of government will secure liberty or happiness without any virtue in the people is a chimerical idea. (Hoped for but illusory or impossible to achieve).”  I ask in Madisonian terms, “If there not be virtue in the governed, how can there be virtue in the government?”

As Tom Freeman  said in a 7/30/2020 PBS interview on Amanpour  “if  the ‘rule of law’ continues to be in jeopardy in the United States, we will not only loose our freedom, but also our prosperity.”

Carl M Birkelbach

4/1/2025 Dow 42,434, NASDAQ 17,744, S&P 500 5,703

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE UPON REQUEST
Mr Birkelbach does not offer investment advice, but merely his own personal opinion. This report has been prepared from original sources and data we believe reliable but make no representations as to the accuracy or completeness. Mr.Birkelbach , his affiliates and subsidiaries and/or their officers and employees may from time to time acquire, hold or sell a position in securities. Past performance is no guarantee of future success. Upon request, we will supply additional information. CarlBis@aol.com