Dow Industrials are in a trading range between 18,300 and 17,700
Since February, the Dow industrial Averages have been trading between a narrow trading range of 18,300 and 17,700. Does this SIDEWAYS TREND mean that the Dow is no longer a bull market? Is this what stock market chartists call DISTRIBUTION??? Although the NASDAQ has made new highs, the Dow Transports and Dow Utilities are definitely in a downtrend. According to the Dow Theory, this is a sell signal. If you want to know what’s really going on in the US markets, take a look at the US Treasuries. Today at 2.48% the 10 year yield is up 3.55% for the day and up over 20% this year. I would think, that’s where the smart money is going, even though the yields are low. For many, it’s better to receive a small yield, than be in a dangerous stock market.
ISL JUNE 22
All that I said below is being negated by a supposed new deal with Greece. (DAX up 3.8% Ya Ya!) If a deal is made, it is just postponing the enviable, in my opinion, which is a Greek default. The Bull market has run out of gas and is now being pushed, by hand, up a very steep hill. It reminds me of the Greek myth ‘SISYPHUS” that was charged with roiling a bolder up a hill. The higher he got, the bigger the boulder became. THE 10 YR T-bond yield is up 10 basis points. That tells the real story. Watch out below!
ISL June 19 2015
BULL MARKET OVER FOR DAX, FTSE,CHINA, DOW TRANSPORTS/Utility AND BOND MARKET! AT THE SAME TIME THE NASDAQ MAKES NEW HIGHS. WHO IS OUT OF SYNC?
The Chinese markets are down 12% this week. The DAX is down from a high of 12,375 to 11,062. The FTSE is down from a high of 7,104 to 6,728.The Dow Transports are down from a high of 9,217 to 8,479.The Dow Utilities are down from a high of 652 to 575. The 10 year yields have risen some 20%. All this while the NASDAQ hits new highs. Somebody is out of sync?
Robert Prechter of the famed Elliott Wave Forecasting has just said that he believes the stock market is in a high risk of a sharp collapse. As an example he looks at the Dow on February 27 when the Dow hitting new high, there were 172 New York Stock Exchange listed stocks that achieved a new high and 31 stocks that hit new lows. However, when the Dow rose to his latest record high on May 19, the number of new highs had fallen to 118, while new lows rose to 38. In addition, he points out something that I did in our last letter, which is that the Dow Jones Transportation index and the Dow Jones Utility index are in downtrends. This is a traditional Dow Theory, sell signal. Prechter also said that the market is operating in a 6.25 years to 7 year cycle that has been operating since 1980 which calls for a market decline. The Elliott wave is based on a Fibonacci summation series known as the divine, or golden ratio which is been found to exist throughout nature including outer space. (See my book above entitled the Investment Strategy Handbook for Volatile Markets.)
I believe that the Bull Markets of the above-mentioned indexes HAVE ENDED. IN MY OPINION THE INTERMEDIATE TREND OF THESE INDEXES IS NOW DOWN. However, the Dow industrials, the NASDAQ and the Standard & Poor’s 500 continue in a narrow trading range in what technical chart readers may call Distribution. One of the main topics of contention is, when will the Federal Reserve increase interest rates and will Greece meet its financial obligations? According to Diane Swank of Mesrow Financial, she believes short-term rates are headed up and in September. This is much earlier than the market investors are contemplating. As far as the Greece situation is concerned, we have been consistently negative and believe that all alternatives are just kicking the can down the road to Greece’s inevitable default. How long will the major indexes hold up in their current Bull Market? There’s an old saying, “it isn’t an over, until it’s over.”
Maybe, you haven’t heard the news yet, but the bond market is crashing. Yields on the 10 year bond are up .55 basis points. That corresponds to approximately a 20% increase in yields for the 10 year bond. Maybe the Federal Reserve isn’t ready to increase interest rates, but investors sure are.
The fabric of the economy continues to be ripped apart by events that hurt the Middle Class and the poor. Pew Research have 30 States cutting budgets in health care, senior care, city government and universities, At the same time wages are dropping and upward mobility is suffering. Add to this, is a recent decision by the Supreme Court to not protect individuals who have second mortgages in bankruptcy. Meanwhile Jamie Dimon becomes a billionaire. IF THE SUPREME COURT RULES AGAINST OBAMA CARE, THE POOR WILL RECEIVE ANOTHER BLOW. HOW MUCH MORE PUNISHMENT CAN OUR CONSUMER ORIENTED ECONOMY TAKE? Watch out below!
KEEP AN EYE ON THE CHART BELOW FOR BREAK OUT POINTS BELOW RESISTANCE OR ABOVE SUPPORT AREAS. Particularly watch for a breakout below Dow 17,700 AND THEN 17,147/17,000, NASDAQ 4605/4545, S&P 500 1991/1973. That would change the Intermediate trend to DOWN
|Breakout Points||DJIA||NASDAQ||S&P 500|
|Short Term Up (Resistance)||18,312||5,157||2,131|
|Short Term Down (Support)||17,147/17000||4605/4,545||1,991/1973|
|Int. Term Up (Resistance)||18,974 See Fibonacci Projections above||5,250||2,486 See Fibonacci Projections above|
|Int. Term Down (Support)||15,855 /15,356 /14,688||4,166 3,986/3294||1,820 /1,560|
|Long Term Up (Resistance)||18,974||5,250||2,500|
|Long Term Down Fibonacci Support||50%12,000 62% 10,750||50%2,958 62% 2,555||50%1,390 62% 1,177|
|10 yr Treasury 2.48%||Gold 1,173||Oil 59.73|