MARKETS CELEBRATE 7 YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF BULL MARKET/SELL
7 YEAR CYCLE WARNING
EUROPE PANIC! CUTS RATES BELOW 0. US reacts Dow down 1%
In the last seven years since March 9, 2009, the Dow has risen 160%, the S&P 500 up 194% and the NASDAQ up 311%. This is the third longest running Bull Market since World War II. Earnings for the S&P 500 are only up 148% compared to the 194% rise of the S&P index. Earnings in the fourth quarter of 2015 for the S&P were down 32% or $23.25 and were only up $7.52 in the first quarter of 2016. US markets made their all-time highs in May 2015. Since then there were two drops of over 10%. Since May of 2015 US markets are down 7%, Chinese markets are down 40%, European markets down 16%, Emerging market markets down 21% and commodity prices down 21%.
There appears to be a respite in our bear market predictions. Oil prices are back to thirty-eight dollars a barrel and banks have admitted the problem of unsecured debt by oil and natural resource companies. China has reduced its growth predictions and Europe seems to once again be stimulating its economy. Many think that the worst is now behind us. However, we believe that this rest period will be temporary.
ELLIOTT WAVE 7 YEAR SELL SIGNAL
Here’s a quote from the issue of the Elliott Wave Theorist:
“The March 2004 issue of EWT postulated a 7-year crisis cycle going back to 1973 and used it to predict another crisis in 2008. Here are the table and the forecast from that issue:
—1973: Arab oil embargo, with spillover into 1974 stock market low of wave IV.
—1980: peak in the inflation rate; top in gold, silver and mining stocks, interest rate spike, stock-market “massacre” and low of wave 2.
—1987: stock market crash and low of wave 4.
—1994: “Republican Revolution;” suspicion of government due to Waco attack (1993), “black helicopters,” etc.; stock market breaks uptrend line at low.
—2001: successful terrorist attack on the World Trade Center; low of wave (3) of 1 [actually 3 of a]. Seven years after 2001 is 2008, so that is the next year to look for an extreme in social fear.
There was certainly a crisis and plenty of social fear in 2008, so this cycle performed as it should have.”
With the last market low at March 9, 2009, it appears that our seven years is up for another surprise.
European Central Bank Panic! Cuts interest rates to zero.
In a continued worry about deflation, Europe has cut its refi rate from 0.07% to minus 0.5%. They also cut their deposit rate from 0.1% to -0.4%. Once again,’central banks are running out of ammunition to stop deflation.’ We continue to believe that this is a losing battle. Pew research has indicated that the public trust in government in 1960 was at 75%, now is only at 20% rating. See past market letters for our continuing scenario.
3/2/15 WORLD STOCK MARKETS RALLIES Investment Strategy: it’s a Bear Market! Sell rallies!
Moody’s rates China government Bonds negative. Moody’s has changed the ratings on Chinese government bonds from neutral to negative. In addition there is a warning about the viability of China’s credit rating. China has been decreasing its bank reserve requirements five times in a row. Government debt is now 40% of GDP up from 32% and forecasted to rise to 43% of GDP. Foreign-exchange reserves are down $1 billion. Cash outflows are estimated to be about $1 trillion as Chinese investors scurry away from their homeland. China continues to be a continued problem in world markets. Their growth rate of 6% is being questioned. Is there breakdown of their economy an indication that the worldwide economy will start to break down?
2/24/16 The big news is that J.P. Morgan is doubling its reserve oil loan losses $1.3 billion. I do not believe this is nearly enough. However it does give an indication of the changing landscape of the way the public is looking at loan losses from energy-related companies. The news is out. The banks the United States and in Europe are holding billions of dollars of loans that will probably default. Banks have built up their assets due to differential between low interest rates and the rates they can charge the public. As I have said in previous market letters, “ Banks have built up their assets on the backs of the middle class. In cooperation with the Federal Reserve, Interest rates are at virtually at zero, penalizing savers and retirees and weakening the middle class as banks make huge profits from consumers who pay high rates on credit cards and small businesses on loans. Because banks can borrow at almost nothing, whatever they charge above zero is pure profit. Auto and mortgage rates are 3% or 4%,( there are $1 trillion of subprime auto loans), industrial loans are between eight and 12% (growth down 11% this year ) and credit cards are anywhere from 15% to 29%.This is high-way robbery and this is weakening middle-class consumers, small businesses and retirees, with the result, as I have said many times, ‘All boats will sink!” This loan reevaluation by J.P. Morgan is just the tip of the iceberg.
Once again, Congress has shown how uncompromising it is with the Obama administration. Harry Mitch McConnell, has said his main goal is to assure that the Obama administration will have as few accomplishments as possible, rather than putting the country first. The latest gridlock is the nomination of a new Supreme Court justice to replace Scalia. Scalia pioneered ’ orginalism’, which is a theory holding that the Constitution should be interpreted in line with the beliefs of white men, many of them slaveowners, who ratified it in the late eighteenth century. Justice Samuel Alito interrupted one of Scalia’s ratings of a lawyer by quipping, “I think that what justice wants to know, is what James Madison thought about video games.” On social issues, where the court has the final word, real problems for conservatives is that they are out of step with the rest of the nation. The public wants diversity not intolerance, gay rights, a broader interpretation of women’s rights for contraception and choice, a broader and more encompassing view of voters rights, fewer execution, the demise of Citizens United, less money in politics not more and the end of gerrymandering congressional districts. The president has the right to make a nomination. The public gave him that right with more than 2 million more votes than his Republican counterpart in the last election. For Mitch McConnell to say, he will not consider any candidate, no matter how well-qualified, speaks of the uncompromising nature of the Congress and its inability to deal with a future financial crisis, which in my opinion is about to hit this Congress will a blast, before the end of the year.
I don’t tell the market what to do. The market tells me what it is doing. On Thursday the Dow Jones industrial average broke its August 25 low of 15,666 by closing at 15,660. This was the last major index or average to not break below August lows. All major indexes and averages worldwide have now broken below the August 25 lows and are officially in a BEAR Market.
Investmet Strategy: sell rallies!
FOUR NEW BOOKS and ONE CLASSIC TO READ
- The Age of Stagnation by Satvajit Das. This book explains the failures of central banks to stop an economic and financial catastrophe. His solution is austerity, which seems unlikely to happen
- The Only Game in Town by El-Erain. He believes that central banks cannot avoid a financial catastrophe with monetary policy alone and needs fiscal policy to aid the economy. With Republican Congress, this does not seem possible.
- Dark Money and the rise of the radical right, by Jane Mayer. This book explains how economic growth is unsustainable if eighty people own 50% of the world’s wealth and 1% of people own more than the 90% of wealth in the US. (dah!)
- The Fourth Industrial Revolution by Klaus Schwab. This book shows what a wonderful world of technological wonders awaiting us once we get through this economic and financial catastrophe. EVENTUALLY, the only problem is, once Artificial Intelligence has access to unlimited knowledge in the cloud and is able to reproduce itself, silicon based intelligence will not need carbon based intelligence The next step in evolution?. However, that’s a problem for another day.( UPDATE 3/10/16In a major breakthrough for artificial intelligence a Google computer called Alpha Go beat the world champion South Korean in the ancient board game of Go Long. This game requires a complex strategy and intuition, which means that computers are gaining the upper hand on humans.)
- Don’t’ forget the classic THIS TIME ITS DIFFERENT by Carmen Reinhart: It tells the story of eight centuries of Financial Folly. Each time after a catastrophe, such as the Great Depression or 2008, economists agree that it could never happen again. Who could be so stupid as to let six banks control 70% of the US assets (to big to fail) and allow all the economic growth to go to the 1%, while eighty people own 50% of the world’s wealth? NAH!
2/12/16 THREE MAIN REASONS FOR THE DECLINE
My forecasts for 2016 call for the Dow Jones Industrial average to be as low as 14,688 to 12,000, the NASDAQ to be as low as 4,000 to 3,000 and the S&P 500 to be as low as 1,560 to 1,400 because of three factors! (See previous market letters)
|Current noon||Dow||NASDAQ||S&P 500|
|Foretasted Trend||DJIA||NASDAQ||S&P 500|
|Long Term||Bear Market||Bear Market||Bear Market|
|Breakout Points||DJIA||NASDAQ||S&P 500|
|Short Term Up (Resistance)||16,912||5,057||2,062|
|Short Term Down (Support)||15,845/15,484
|Int. Term Up (Resistance)||18,352||5,231||2,134|
|Int. Term Down (Support)||/15,370 /14,688/ 13,377||3,986/3294||1,560|
|Long Term Up (Resistance)||18,352||5,231||2,134|
|Long Term Down Fibonacci Support||50%12,000
2008 LOW 6,627
2008 LOW 1,204
2008 LOW 666
|10 Treasury LOW 1.60% Now1.94%||Gold 1,267||Oil 26.59low Now 37.58|
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE UPON REQUEST
Mr Birkelbach does not offer investment advice, but merely his own personal opinion. This report has been prepared from original sources and data we believe reliable but make no representations as to the accuracy or completeness. Mr.Birkelbach , his affiliates and subsidiaries and/or their officers and employees may from time to time acquire, hold or sell a position in securities. Past performance is no guarantee of future success. Upon request, we will supply additional information. CarlBis@aol.com