50 YEAR PLAN FOR THE TOP TENTH OF ONE PERCENT, ‘TO GET IT ALL’

Let’s pretend that there is a conspiracy by the Big Banks and  Wall street to “Take it All!’ Further lets preted that this conspiracy is headed up by one person called El. El’s plan calls for the poor to get poorer and ‘the rich take it all.’ His plan is to move everything towards chaos. Maimonides, a 12th century philosopher said, “Hope is the belief in the plausibility of the possible, as opposed to the fear of the probable.” There is always hope. However, entropy is unfortunately more probable and powerful than order. An ancient deity, also with the name of EL, was the supreme god of the Canaanite and the Mesopotamian Semites. The god EL and his followers represent the worship of the material world over the spiritual world and have the bull as its symbol of God.  Interestingly this aggressive bull is also the symbol of Wall Street!

El’s 50 year plan is as follows:

Phase One: El’s project began in 1968 under President Johnson and later through the Nixon administrations. The plan called for eliminating gold as a backing for the dollar and for the floating of world currencies. Since this has happened, the price of gold has gone from $35 an ounce, to above $1,200 an ounce. As the average citizen doesn’t hold gold, only El and his allies on Wall Street have benefited. In the 1980’s El’s group helped commercial banks by eliminating the competition of the Savings and Loan industry. They did that by Wall Street purposely selling the S&L’s junk bonds, which became worthless; causing the S&L’s to go bankrupt. To further help the commercial banks, El and his Wall Street group got ‘branch banking’ approved, so that now, Big Bank branches are as convenient as your local coffee shop.  Before branch banking, deposits were held and loans were given, by thousands of small local banks and Savings and Loan banks. Their officers personally knew their local customers. Remember the Bailey’s S&L in the famous movie, It’s a Wonderful Life?  Well, Bedford Falls is gone, we now we live in Pottersvile. Today, only 5 banks control some 70% of total deposits and only 10 banks own some 95% of total US deposits. The small banks are gone.

As planned and with the help of President Clinton, El’s Wall Street group in 1999 eliminated the ‘Glass Steagall Act,’ that separated banks from Investment Banks. The elimination of this law has removed a regulation that for instance, prevented a bank from acting in its self-interest, by being an Investment Bank that conducts a public offering of stock or bond new issues and at the same time having discretionary control of customer’s funds in a trust account of the same bank. Now, there is no ‘wall’ of protection between the two entries. Big Banks win again/Public loses!

El’s plan has also worked to eliminate corporate company employee Pension Plans, with a substitute of a personal private ‘401K retirement plan.’ Except for government entries and municipalities, company pension plans are now toast and the personal ‘401K retirement plans’ are employees only alternative. This has taken the burden and expense of retirement off the corporate books and according to the plan, the public now associates their success with ‘Corporate America’ and the stock market, as most 401K plans are invested in the stock market or other Wall Street products. This is a double win for Wall Street and Corporate America. 84% of all stocks in the US are held by the top 10% of income earners but, is just one of their assets. For many employed Americans of the bottom remaining 90% of income earners, their employee 401K retirement plan of investments in stocks represent all their retirement funds. As most individuals are now basically only investing their 401K retirement funds through mutual funds in the stock market, which the Big Banks and Wall Street now control, El’s plan has been very successful!

Also, according to El’s plan, America’s corporations have become international entities without borders, having no loyalty to their country of origin or their workers and have priorities only for their officers, with CEO salaries 500 times the average worker (up from 60 times in the 1960’s). Corporations are hoarding cash and profits and buying their own stock back, rather than expanding their business, especial since corporate taxes have been cut.  Since ‘Citizen’s United’ corporations, through their lobbyists, have an unproportioned influence on government. As Joy always says, “If corporations are people, they would be called sociopaths, which are only interested in their own gratification.” On occasion corporations merge with each other, making huge buy-out profits for it officers, while reducing employees and creating more powerful and influential international corporations.  There is a constant cycle, where Investment bankers make huge fees by first putting firms together in mergers and then breaking up the company’s divisions and selling them separately making more fees.

The 2007 plan; to get individual equity out of their personal homes and into El’s groups pockets was very successful.  The banks liberalized their home loan policies, under a subterfuge of helping everyone to buy their own home, which in reality, they really couldn’t afford. Then Investment Bankers packaged these mortgages into worthless CMO’s securities and sold them to their clients and in anticipation of a Real Estate market collapse, and at the same time shorted these securities in their corporate account.  In addition, at the same time, they made profits and fees from mortgages they wrote and securities they packaged.  You say there should be a law against this outrageous breach of trust? There was. The law was called the Glass Steagall Act which the Clinton Administration eliminated. This unethical strategy, because of the bad loans, eventually put the commercial bank’s balance sheets in trouble. However, as El had planned, the Obama Administration would not allow the banks to fail in 2008, as they are ‘too big to fail’ (and too big to jail), and put the burden for their relief on tax payers, further weakling the Middle Class. After only being one month in office, President Trump issued an executive order stating it “shall be the policy of my Administration to … prevent taxpayer-funded bailouts.” So, there will supposedly be no bank bail-out plan for next round of bank failures. Of course, there will be.

Phase Two: Today, with the stock market at new highs above at 29,000 Dow, the stage is set for Phase ll of El’s plan to take all chips. The public is heavily invested in the stock market under ‘Wall Street’s’ and the financial Industries motto, ‘Holding for the long run, always works out.’ Trained like ‘Pavlov’s Dog,’ investors have full confidence in the stock market and its recovery attributes and the advantages of mutual funds.

The middle class continues to take it on the chin. According to recent data between 2000 and 2017, the middle class have shrunk from 55% to under 48%. An economy based on consumer spending of the middle class, like the United States, cannot grow without a healthy middle-class. International corporations do well for a while, as they are now. But eventually, I feel the present economic environment may lead to a deflationary economy, which will hurt all economic levels. If commodity prices and companies engaged in retail sales continue to suffer, their bonds will eventually suffer and therefore the banks that are holding securities will suffer. The trend for the rich to become richer and the poor becoming poorer will go on until it reaches a tipping point, (1^st Law of Thermodynamics- an object will continue in its path and acceleration until it is met with an opposing force) where the middle class consumers will not be able to support the economy, (2ed Law of Thermodynamics –Entropy).

Will people vote against their self-interest? El says, “Yes! Because we have taught an ideology to ‘be against’: big government, unions, immigration, atheists, socialism, gays, blacks, regulations, scientists and abortion and ‘for’ big business, free markets, guns, fewer taxes and the stock market. We have taught the public to become cynical and to mistrust government, the media and each other. We will flood the news media and the social media with alternative facts. Everyone has been taught to mistrust the news and to mistrust each other. Facts will become irrelevant and the only thing that matters will be the emotional appeal.” Who is helping El in perpetrating this polarization? Some say it is Russia, through the social network such as Facebook and other say it is the Koch brothers and their Cato Institute, The Federalist Society and The Mount Pelerin Society.  We do know that it was the Mercer family that was behind Cambridge Analytica, which interfered with the 2016 election.

Unless we make changes now, I believe that a financial crisis surprise is about to happen from somewhere (a debt balloon, global warming events, a pandemic?) and the average investor has little options to protect themselves.  Of course everyone is now in the stock market; you can’t get a decent return anywhere else and of course everyone is now in mutual funds; it is the most practical way to invest. For El, it is like feeding anchovies to the sharks. Soon the stage will be set for Phase Three.

El’s Phase Three, (The Black Hole) In the not too distant future: 1) The three branches of government will become dysfunctional as polarization and hyper-partisanship will fail to find pragmatic solutions or be able to respond to fundamental public needs.  Congress will not be able to bailout the banks, as the banks will be so deeply in trouble with non-collectable loans and some $350 trillion in derivatives outstanding, that a bailout this time, will be impossible. The banks will close. The New York Stock Exchange will close. All functions of government in the United States will cease to exist, except for the payment of interest on our US debt, the police and national defense. The only ones that will have any money (return on government bonds) and the only power will be that of the oligarchy. Class warfare will at last come to an end, as the oligarchy will dominate.  The class hierarchy will be 2% upper, 13% Middle and 85% poor. (Just like the novel 1984) 2) All national governments worldwide will fail. The oligarchy will then be composed of approximately 2000 selected families worldwide and their Corporations will rule the world without borders. Approximately 2,000 families will hold their estates in walled castles, protected by a paid army. 3) All land and businesses in the world will be owned and ruled by the oligarchy. 4) Most people will be unemployed and uneducated. All those, because of their needed skills, that will have a job, will be corporate employees and will be designated as serfs or slaves. Genetic engineered embryos will be available only to the oligarchy, assuring them the brightest and healthiest children. 5) Law order will prevail. 6) The oligarchy will eventually move away from earth to either ‘sky lab type 2001 Space Odyssey satellites,’(The 2013 movie Elysium) or when it becomes possible, to the moon or Mars. The earth and its multitudes are destined perish in pollution, drought and rising seas. This scenario obviously has to be stopped.

I really don’t believe Phase lll and the ‘Black Hole’ will happen. I am too much of an optimist and I still have faith in the majority of the American people will not let it happen. However, polarization and hyper-partisanship already dominates the political scene and unless we can make changes on the short term, the stage seems to be set for chaos to once again rule. I have to remind myself about the lessons of the past and that we have to continue to remind ourselves about such books like, This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, by Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff. ‘This time,’ we cannot allow the ‘folly’ to happen!

I can only hope that Phase lll of El’s plan never happens here. However, what is happening now, reminds me of a three science fiction movies and two classic books!!!

MY CONCERNS

I really don’t believe Phase lll and the ‘Black Hole’ will happen. I am to much of an optimist and I still have faith in the majority of the American people will not let it happen. However, unless we can make changes on the short term, the stage seems to be set for chaos to once again rule. I don’t know from where and I don’t know when, but whatever it is, it will probably come as a surprise. Maybe it will happen from the surprise effect of early global warming or a surprise China collapse. Unless we make changes now, I believe that the stage is set for a financial crisis surprise and the average investor has little options to protect themselves.  Of course everyone is now in the stock market; you can’t get a decent return anywhere else. Of course everyone is now in mutual funds; it is the most practical way to invest. For El, it is like feeding anchovies to the sharks.

Maybe our weakness is China? George Soros has just been recently quoted as saying, “China has a major adjustment problem. I would say it amounts to a crisis. When I look at the financial markets there is a serious challenge which reminds me of the crisis we had in 2008.”  China continues to show lackluster economic growth. China’s rate of loans is far above the rate of money supply growth. China’s debt is 2.5 times its GDP. China is using its currency to buy as many companies in the West as it can, while it can. Just as has happened to Japan in the 1990’s, I expect the same deflationary scenario to begin to occur in China.

The Chinese currency has dropped to its lowest level in many years. Possible tariffs could toss China into a recession where growth is already slowing. China’s banks have given loans to questionable companies as $1.3 trillion of corporate loans are owned by companies were profits will not cover their interest payments. The rating agencies think everything is fine. However, remember these very same agencies rated worthless CMO’s in 1968 as AAA. The problem in China could trigger banks losses that could start a worldwide recession. Money is flowing out of China. Tariffs will increase the problem. While some manufacturing jobs may come back to the US as a result of the tariffs, more jobs domestically may be lost, because the average American would have less spending power. The Peterson Institute for International Economics estimated that rather than bringing back jobs,  Trump’s proposed tariffs could ‘result in a trade war and cost our economy more than 5 million jobs and possibly lead to a recession’.

I believe China is a ‘paper tiger’ that is not as big or as strong as it appears and is hampered by cronyism and corruption. Although China has a supposed $375 billion trade deficit with us, the actual figure is much smaller. For example, the export value given to the Apple X iphone is $378. China contributes only $14 of the total cost for assembly while the rest of the cost is run through supply chains in the US and the rest of the world. Our trade balance ignores the value created by other countries that have preceded China in the chain. Tariffs may kill more jobs than it saves. In fact The Foreign Policy Association estimates that one dollar spent on Chinese imports is about 75 cents that goes into the US economy and that every job created in the metal industry through tariffs, would eliminate 16 jobs in other industries.

China doesn’t even believe its own statistics, as China’s provinces are growing faster than the whole. The China inflation rate is a government secret as they print money indiscriminately to bolster its shaky growth figures. Our Federal Reserve estimates that the US net worth is $60 trillion larger than China and yet, China’s money supply is estimated to be 75% larger than the US.

With 20% of the world’s population they have only 8% of the world’s arable land and 10% of that is reported to be polluted. Coal still provides 70% of China’s power creating 16 of the world’s most polluted cities. About 435 of China’s 660 large cities are suffering from severe water depletion. I fear China not because of its competition, but because of its vulnerability and possible effect on an upcoming economic crisis.

My greatest fear in this country is that America will be turned into an oligarchy and then into a kleptocracy, similar to Russia. In a recent (Oct 22, 2016) Economist Magazine they describe Putin’s domestic policy to reduce competition to favor his oligarchs. They describe a system he developed which Kirll Rogov, a Russian political economist describes as “soft legal constraints.” To quote from the Economist Magazine, “It involves writing the rules in such a way that to observe them is either prohibitively expensive or downright impossible to follow, then handing out licenses to break those rules to the oligarchy.” Doesn’t this sound exactly like what has happened in our financial industry? The SEC and FINRA have made the rules (compliance) to run an independent brokerage firm as either prohibitively expensive or downright impossible to follow. In this way, the government has eliminated independent competition and has turned over the entire financial industry over to the banks and large financial institutions. They allow Wall Street to break the rules for the cost of a small fine, as compared to the large profit that they made in breaking the rules. In this way the large financial institutions feed the SEC, that guards their monopoly.

In my opinion, the Trump presidency is functioning without restraints within his administration or from the Republican Party. This is causing the United States  to look more and more like Putin’s Russia oligarchy and its economy, dominated by the privileged few 400 families (top tenth of 1%). My fear is that like Russia, we are quickly becoming a  Kleptocracy  (from Greek κλέπτης kléptēs, “thief”, κλέπτω kléptō, “I steal”, and -κρατία –kratía from κράτος krátos, “power, rule”) is a government with corrupt leaders (kleptocrats) that use their power to exploit the people and natural resources in order to extend their personal wealth and political powers.

The slowing of growth in the US could have significant political implication, as President Trump’s popularity depends significantly on economic prosperity The effect of the $1.5 trillion tax cut will be temporary. The first half GDP growth for 2018 was 3.2%. However, forecasts call for the full year GDP growth at only 3.2% and 2019 GDP +2.1% and 2020 GDP + only 1.9%!. Recent surveys have indicated that Trump’s base indicates that as long as the economy is doing well, they care little about the president’s lies (8500+ and counting) or his misogyny, or his obstruction of justice, or his racism or his denial of global warming or his preferential treatment of autocratic leaders, or his lack of empathy for equal upward mobility, or his separation of children from their parents, or his negation of NATO, or that his ‘swamp’ is full admitted law breakers, incompetents and temporary acting executives for the masses of administrators who have quit or resigned,, or his lack of concern about anything except his own personal business interests and his popularity.

So far, Trump’s base is holding. However, I fear what will happen if his base starts to fade. Will a crisis occur, as happened to Hither, when terrorists (or he) burned down the Berlin capital the Reichstag building? Although Hitler only had 30% of the vote, he used the terrorist attack to take over the government under ‘temporary’ emergency powers, because of a national emergency. The scary thing about the Hitler take over is that it was approved and made possible by the Christian Democrats, which we now call Evangelistic Christians. It ‘can’ happen here! I have devoted myself to make sure that Enlightenment prevails over the dark side of chaos. As the Founding Fathers did in The Declaration of Independence,  fifty-six men declared their commitment to the “self-evident truths” that formed the foundation of our nation and which have continued to serve as a beacon of hope for all people around the world who have yearned to be free, I pledge my life, my fortune and my sacred honor.

‘Sacred honor,’ were befittingly the last words of this declaration. We are living through a moment in history where honor is no longer assumed. The President has smashed through our established norms for honor. This has resulted in people assuming they have permission to say things that are rude, raciest, misogynistic, homophobic and just plain uncivil. A small group of people are trying to shift the norms of our social climate to one that is not acceptable to the majority. Civility is kept in balance with accountability and virtue. It is ‘self evident’ that we are able to tell the difference between what is right and what is unethical. If we lose this battle, we have lost the war!

It was George Orwell book of  ‘1984′ fame who said: “Anyone who challenges the prevailing authority, can find himself suddenly silenced.” (Giordano Bruno burnt at the stake in 1600 for saying the earth revolves around the sun). There has been a major effort to silence me! I got ‘barred’ after appealing a minor $25,000 fine and 90 day suspension. I lost my business, my largest asset, my retirement from 12b1 fees and my reputation. I also lost my access to being quoted (once a month) by such media as The Wall Street Journal, Barron’s Magazine and Reuters international News service. I found out a little to late, that ‘Due Process’ at the SEC, is not tolerated. And just recently my bank JP Morgan, canceled all my accounts and my charge cards.

Faced with this tyranny and censorship, it is important to still speak out.

CARL

How many times can a man turn his head
And pretend that he just doesn’t see?
The answer, my friend, is blowing in the wind
The answer is blowing in the wind

How many times must a man look up
Before he can see the sky?
How many ears must one man have
Before he can hear people cry?

How many deaths will it take till he knows
That too many people have died?
The answer, my friend, is blowing in the wind
The answer is blowing in the wind

SUNG BY Peter, Paul & Mary – Lyrics Bob Dylan

Kleptocracy  AT THE MOVIES! 

“I can only hope that Phase lll, never happens here. However, what is happening now,  reminds me of a three science fiction movies!!!

Rollerball. 1975 movie called Rollerball. It stars James Caan as the sports hero Jonathan, Maude Adams as his ex-wife and John Houseman as Mr. Bartholomew, a high-level executive of the Energy Corporation. The film takes place in 2018, where the word is run as a global corporate state. The Energy Corporation is a global energy monopoly based in Houston, which controls access to all transportation, housing, communication and food on a global basis. Energy Corporation sponsors Jonathan’s team. Jonathan’s wife, Maud Adams was taken away from Jonathan by a corporate executive, which simply exerted his power and took her. The game Rollerball is a substitute for all team sports and for warfare. It is designed to bring euphoria to the masses. While the purpose of the sport is entertainment, Mr. Bartholomew, describes it as having a “distinct social purpose”: to show the futility of individual effort. In order to defeat the individual star Jonathan, The Energy Corporation simply changes the rules, so that Rollerball soon degrades into senseless violence, which nullifies any individual effort with humiliation. In the movie Jonathan emerges victorious against the Big Corporation.  This seems unlikely!”

Handmaid’s Tale, a 1985 book and now a TV Special, The Handmaid’s Tale, a work of  fiction by Canadian author Margaret Atwood. The novel is set in a near-future in New England, in a totalitarian theocracy, which has overthrown the United States government. The Handmaid’s Tale is set in the Republic of Gilead, a theocratic military dictatorship formed within the borders of what was formerly the United States of America. It begins with a staged attack that kills the President and most of Congress with a Christian fundamentalist revolutionary uprising, called the “Sons of Jacob”.   The revolution suspends the United States Constitution, under the pretext of restoring order. The new regime, the Republic of Gilead, forms a new militarized hierarchical regime, based on Old Testament-inspired social and religious fanaticism, which creates newly created social classes, with only the elite ruling. In this society, human rights are severely limited and women’s rights are even more curtailed, as women are forbidden to read. The story is told in the first person by a woman called Offred. The character is one of a class of women kept by the ruling class for reproductive purposes and known as ‘handmaids’.”

Elysium. The 2013 film offers deliberate social commentary, which explores political and sociological themes such as immigration, overpopulation, health care, worker exploitation, the justice system, and social class issues. In 2154, Earth  most of the earth’s citizens live in poverty, on the edge of starvation, and with little technology and medical care. The rich and powerful live on Elysium — a gigantic space habitat located in Earth’s orbit. Elysium is technologically advanced with some of its technology including Med-Bays: medical machines that can cure all diseases, reverse the aging process, and regenerate new body parts. A long-running feud exists between the wealthy residents of Elysium and the citizens of Earth. The earth and its multitudes are destined to perish in pollution, drought and rising seas.”

Kleptocracy  in Books:

What also come to mind is the book Brave New World  by  Aldous Huxley. Published in 1932, it proposes that economic chaos and unemployment will cause a radical reaction in the form of an international scientific empire that manufactures its citizens in the laboratory on a eugenic basis, without the need for human intercourse. The World State is built upon the principles of Henry Ford‘s assembly line: mass production, homogeneity, predictability, and consumption of disposable consumer goods. While the World State lacks any supernatural-based religions, Ford himself is revered as the creator of their society but not as a deity, and characters celebrate Ford Day and swear oaths by his name (e.g., “By Ford!”). The novel’s Gregorian calendar year is AD 2540, but it is referred to in the book as AF 632 (2,560 AD)

From birth, members of every class are indoctrinated by recorded voices repeating slogans while they sleep (called “hypnopædia” in the book) to believe their own class is superior, but that the other classes perform needed functions. Any residual unhappiness is resolved by his society’s methods of keeping its citizens peaceful, which includes their constant consumption of a soothing drug called soma. This books relevance to today is the drinking of the common ‘kool-aide’ of Corporate indoctrination “If it good for the corporation it must be good for the nation’ Formerly ‘What’s good for General Motors is good for the country. The common good has fallen away to ‘winners take all’ attitude. Governments are protecting the privileged and the rest are considered outsiders.

The biological techniques used to control the populace in Brave New World did not include genetic engineering, because Huxley book was written before the structure of DNA was known. However, Hitler’s ‘master race’ is definitely implied. Now the upper class can promote their children’s future through superior education and personal contacts. However, soon if you can afford it, why not enhance the embryo of your children to produce the brightest and healthiest children using genetically engineering? Domination by blond and blue eyed Arians of Hitler’s perfect child can now be achieved.

As long as I’m at it we can’t forget 1984 by George Orwell. In 1984, London is a grim city in the totalitarian state of Oceania where Big Brother is always watching you and the Thought Police can practically read your mind. Winston Smith is a man in grave danger for the simple reason that his memory still functions. Drawn into a forbidden love affair, Winston finds the courage to join a secret revolutionary organization called The Brotherhood, dedicated to the destruction of the Party. Together with his beloved Julia, he hazards his life in a deadly match against the powers that be.

T he class hierarchy of Oceania has three levels:

• (I) the upper-class Inner Party, the elite ruling minority, who make up 2% of the population.
• (II) the middle-class Outer Party, who make up 13% of the population.
• (III) the lower-class Proletariat, who make up 85% of the population and represent the uneducated working class.

As the government, the Party controls the population with four ministries:

• The Ministry of Peacedeals with war and defense.
• The Ministry of Plentydeals with economic affairs (rationing and starvation).
• The Ministry of Lovedeals with law and order (torture and brainwashing).
• The Ministry of Truthdeals with news, entertainment, education and art (propaganda).
• The Thought Police  stamps out anyone who does not fully conform to their regime and constant surveillance, through devices such as (Telescreens two-way televisions. (Watch out for Google ‘Alexia’)

Nineteen Eighty-Four popularized the adjective Orwellian, which describes official deception, secret surveillance, brazenly misleading terminology, and manipulation of recorded history by a totalitarian or authoritarian state.

There are some similarities between now and 1984:  1) The US has been in constant war since 1776 (except for 36 years). 2) After some 8000 lies of president Trump, documented by the New York Times ‘alternative truth’ has entered our vocabulary. 2+2 does not equal 5 as Winston Smith finally believed! 3) China, Russia, North Korea and the Saudi Arabia (remember the oil embargo) are now our friends and Canada, France and the rest of G6 are now our enemies. 4) With Presidential authoritarianism and worldwide fascism, George Orwell’s 1984 is taking on a new life with extraordinary relevance and renewed popularity. 5) The class hierarchy of 1984 of 2% upper, 13% Middle and 85% poor is becoming a reality. Though the year 1984 now exists in the past, Orwell’s novel remains an urgent call for the individual willing to speak truth to power. “Orwell saw, to his credit, that the act of falsifying reality is only secondarily a way of changing perceptions. It is, above all, a way of asserting power.”—The New Yorker

These fictional stories tell ‘what lies beneath’ the psyche of humanities worst traits. ―Quotes George Orwell, 1984. “Who controls the past controls the future. Who controls the present controls the past.”  And, “If you want a vision of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face – forever”

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Carl does not offer investment advice, but merely his own personal opinion. This report has been prepared from original sources and data we believe reliable but make no representations as to the accuracy or completeness. Carl , his affiliates and subsidiaries and/or their officers and employees may from time to time acquire, hold or sell a position in securities. Past performance is no guarantee of future success. Upon request, we will supply additional information. CarlBis@aol.com

Carl M Birkelkbach

updated 4/11/2019