Because I have been right about this decline, a lot of people are asking me what should they do, buy or sell? I wish I knew! For one thing, just because I have been right lately, doesn’t mean I have a special direct line to the answer. For one thing, I have been wrong for a long time. I issued the first Lone Bear Letter 1/23/2015, when the Dow was 17,672. Had you listened to me then, you would have missed out on the entire second half of the Great Bull Market from 2015 to 2020. However, if you had instead invested in a CD’s at 3% a year, that would have offset every 500 points in the Dow per year and for five years that’s 2,500 point. That would leave you about even now, with a current 20,100 Dow. But like me, you would have missed out on the thrill of making all that money on paper, but avoided the agony of defeat, that most investors now feel.

Anyway, what you should do now, depends a lot on your age, what kind of cash flow you have to meet your expenses and how diversified you are in other asset like  cash (money markets, CD’s etc.). So, ask your professional investment adviser, what is best for you.

If you read my blog page titled In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act” which is a quote by George Orwell; you will see that I believe that the Financial Industry has not truly fully disclosed stock market risk to the investing public.  Instead the Financial Industry gives the false advice that, “on the long term, the stock market will always recover.” Keynes has a famous quote that states “in the long run, we will all be dead.” The point being, if you are older and depending on the stock market for retirement, the stock market may not recover from any decline, in time for when you need the money.  During the period between 2000 and 2008 the stock market went down more than 50% twice, which was devastating for people who were retiring or sending their children to college. If you invested in the Dow in 1998, it wasn’t until 2011, that you got your money back. Therefore, in full disclosure, I believe I should tell investors that investing in the stock market is dangerous and that most people, ‘the average American,’ should treat stock market investing only as a speculation and not as a form of savings. Simply stated, most people should not gamble with their savings in the stock market.

I would like to see the Federal government sponsor a ‘Retirement Savings Fund’ that guarantees a 3 ½% return. (The rate would go up if the Fed fund rate goes higher). A Federal government sponsor a Retirement Savings Fund is needed. It would really help with the average American and their saving planning and keep the ‘average investor’ out of the stock market.  This would make retirement planning a lot easier and safer.

So, my answer to the question, of what should you do, is for most older people to not invest in the stock market, or if you are older, treat stock investing as a speculation with money you can afford to lose. For you younger people and you older people that qualify, the opinion of what I say in this blog does not take in consideration your personal financial situation or your goals. My opinion is just that, my opinion of what I think the stock market will do, based on my questionable expertise.


Federal Debt May Stop Any New Recession

ONLY FOR THOSE WHO ARE YOUNG ENOUGH OR CAN TAKE RISK I suggest  a new ‘Investment Strategy Program’. Besides  investments in gold and the Bitcoin,  Set up a program’ to be ‘fully invested’ as follows:  Choose 21 of the best performing stocks like Amazon and 21 stocks that have big dividends and hold up well in down markets like Exxon. This portfolio should be updated every quarter.


DOW 19,175  Down 913 Down 4.55%%

Mr Birkelbach does not offer investment advice, but merely his own personal opinion. This report has been prepared from original sources and data we believe reliable but make no representations as to the accuracy or completeness. Mr.Birkelbach , his affiliates and subsidiaries and/or their officers and employees may from time to time acquire, hold or sell a position in securities. Past performance is no guarantee of future success. Upon request, we will supply additional information. CarlBis@aol.com