DOW REMAINS BELOW ALL TIME HIGH???

This week, should be an important week for those watching charts. The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ markets have already broken into new high ground above their December highs. It remains to be seen, whether the Dow industrial averages will break into new high ground. There has been a flurry of positive news lately, including good earnings reports, a cease-fire in Ukraine, higher oil prices above $52 a barrel, some accommodations with Greece and indications that the European Central Bank will try to stimulate the economy. I continue to believe that earnings will continue to deteriorate, the Ukraine cease-fire will not hold, oil prices are headed below $45 a barrel, Greece is a problem that will not go away and the stimulus of Europeans central bank is not enough to turn around a European deflationary scenario.   Fourth quarter productivity growth shows output per hour fell at a 1.8% in rate and was up 0.8% for all of 2014. That’s well below the average 2.2% between 1947 2014. RETAIL SALES FOR DECEMBER WERE DOWN.

If the DOW INDU, breaks above new high ground and holds above that new high ground, the market is telling us it wants to ignore all the bad news AND just go higher. There’s an old saying in the stock market; “The trend is your friend

”WILL THE DOW PULL THE S&P DOWN OR WILL THE S&P PULL THE DOW UP?

Dow                 NASDAQ                   S&P

Current                     18,029                 4,906                      2,099

December High          18,086                 4,814                      2,092

January High              17,400                 4,700                      2,013

January Lows             17,147                 4,605                      1,991

December Low            17,069                 4,545                      1,973